Latest news: Three major events determine the direction.
Powell's speech aftermath: The early morning speech 'played Tai Chi' (did not mention rate cuts but soothed the market), institutions paused major actions, and the wait-and-see mood is strong.
UK selling smoke bomb: The 7 billion BTC sale confirmed process is stalled (legal disputes + failed bidding), short-term panic selling risk is lifted.
Countdown to Hong Kong license: The first batch of 'invitation-based' stablecoin institution list may be announced tonight. If Standard Chartered and Ant Group qualify, it will boost confidence in Asian funds.
News conclusion: No sudden black swan, but lack of upward catalysts continues the volatile pattern!
Technical breakdown: Long and short are at a stalemate, focus on two positions.
Upper pressure: 120000 USD is the 'iron top'.
In the chart, 120347 USD (Bollinger upper band) holds strongly, failing three times to break through, with volume continuously shrinking (no new funds).
MACD double lines cling to the zero axis, long and short are at an impasse, breakout requires massive volume support (hourly trading volume > 3 billion USD).
Support below: 118400 USD is the lifeline.
In the chart, 118400 USD (white line) has supported the price for four consecutive times, known as 'institutional support'.
Strong support zone at 115736-116000 USD (Bollinger lower band + dense chip area), dare to buy more at this level with closed eyes!
Form warning:
Narrowing triangle (high points decreasing / low points increasing) indicates a turning point within 48 hours, with equal chances for upward and downward breakouts!
Volume signal: If a drop occurs with increased volume breaking 118400 USD, switch to short; if it consolidates with decreased volume, wait for the turning point to act.
Airs' exclusive strategy: Three tricks to profit in a volatile market.
Order sniper points (suitable for grid trading).
Breakout to go long: 120500 USD (enter after stabilizing above 120347, stop loss at 119800).
Bottom fishing: 116000 USD (place limit order, stop loss at 115500).
Current price operation: Fluctuating around 118400, hold if it doesn't break, reduce positions if it does!
Position management '33% system'.
30% base position held (add more if it drops below 117000).
30% flexible funds: High sell and low buy between 116000-120000 USD (make a round every 500 USD).
30% cash waiting for a turning point: Go long if we break upwards past 120500, increase positions if we break down below 116000.
Leverage warning:
Opening leverage when MACD is near the zero axis ≈ suicide! The fluctuation is only 0.9%, and a 5x leverage drop of 2% can lead to liquidation; playing spot is the safest.
Ultimate prediction: Watch for the turning direction tonight!
Conditions for upward breakout: Hong Kong license list exposure (Standard Chartered/Ant Group qualifying) → Asian hot money influx → Significant volume increase breaking 120000 USD → Target 123000!
Conditions for downward breakout: Sudden developments in UK sales / US stocks plummeting → Panic selling breaks 118400 → Target 116000 USD (but this is a golden pit).
Personal opinion:
I stand long! Hong Kong policy benefits + institutional bottom support (118400) provide double insurance, and the downside space is limited. However, a breakout requires volume support, closely monitor Hong Kong media news today and tomorrow!
I am Airs, guiding you through the fog of the crypto world to seize hardcore opportunities! Follow me for ongoing crypto opportunities amidst the trade war storm; what you lack is not luck, but Airs' top-notch team!
