The current large consolidation of Bitcoin can be compared to November 12-18, 2024. The difference this time is that due to companies like ETF and SBET, Ethereum has experienced a supplementary rally (EB & ETHUSDT).
Overall, there are two predictions for the upcoming market.
1. Bitcoin will have Round 2 (the second wave of increase). Since April 7, Bitcoin has shown a pattern of impulse increases, followed by consolidation or downward trends. For instance, from May 9 to 17, May 23 to June 5, and June 12 to 22, each consolidation lasted between 7-14 days. Based on the peak on July 14, Bitcoin may consolidate for 1-2 weeks before continuing to rise. Considering the reversal issues around the FOMC, although it seems inapplicable in trending markets; if applicable, it may mean a peak before a drop on July 31, indicating that a continuation of the rise should start soon. (An increase lasting 4-5 days suggests that the rise should not be later than the 26th.)
2. Rotation
The symptoms of the rise since April are: during the 4-5 days when Bitcoin rallies, altcoins follow with a sharp rise; when Bitcoin consolidates or declines, altcoins crash. However, after peaking on July 14, altcoins did not decline, which is primarily due to the significant supplementary rally of Ethereum.
There are two perspectives to consider. First, "This is not truly unspeakable, because in the realm of truly unspeakable, altcoins should not follow any cryptocurrency." Second, "This is truly unspeakable, because Ethereum is the largest altcoin; Ethereum and altcoins always rise and fall together."
Regardless of the perspective, if Ethereum stops rising, it could be quite dangerous for altcoins.
At the same time, we observe that the increase of Total3 is much higher than Others. The current risk appetite curve is biased towards large market caps. If (after Ethereum stops) large market caps can take over and initiate a new rally, it could raise the overall ceiling for altcoins.
If large market caps also abruptly stop when Ethereum's momentum ceases, then perhaps the ceiling would be reached when the EB exchange rate peaks.
