Those who chase fluctuations are like trying to catch splashes in a storm; those who observe trends are like waiting for the tide to rise on the shore.
A signpost pointing in the right direction means you can reach the destination even if you go slowly; if the direction is wrong, no matter how fast you run, it's all in vain. Take one step and think three steps ahead; it's not overthinking, but leaving a way out for each transaction.
