Many people ask me: 'In a year, can 10,000 turn into 10,000,000?' My answer is: it’s possible, but only 1% of people in the world can do it—it's not about luck, but about mastering the 'rolling positions' to the extreme, plus hitting that altcoin wave that can multiply by a hundred.
But first, let me pour cold water on this: the risk is 100 times higher than you think. I’ve seen too many people die on the path of 'rolling positions'; either their positions are a mess, or they can’t withstand the volatility and get liquidated. Today, I will break down the underlying logic and survival skills of this method; understand it before deciding whether to engage.
First, the core of rolling positions: use 'fixed positions' to combat human nature.
When rolling positions, position management is a matter of life and death. For example, if you have 30,000 U for contracts, my suggestion is to split it into 3 parts, each part being 10,000 U—this is not arbitrarily divided; it’s to restrain your greed.
Each time opening a position only moves 10,000 U: Bitcoin contracts should never exceed 10x leverage, and altcoins at most 5x. Why? High leverage looks like big profits, but a single spike can lead to liquidation; with 10x leverage, a 10% drop means zero, while 5x needs a 20% drop to liquidate, leaving a buffer that can save you.
More crucial is 'dynamic balance': if you lose 1000 U, make up 1000 U from outside; if you earn 1000 U, withdraw 1000 U immediately. The purpose of doing this is to always keep the capital for each opening position at 10,000 U—so you won’t get euphoric from gains, nor panic from losses. Stabilizing your mindset ensures your operations won’t distort.
Wait for 30,000 U to roll into 90,000 U, then increase each position to 20,000 U. Is this process slow? Indeed, but the huge profits in the crypto world have never come from being 'fast'; they come from being 'steady'.
Second, the opportunity for rolling positions: only capture 'deterministic trends'.
Some people think rolling positions means operating every day; that’s wrong. True rolling position experts might only take action 3-5 times a year—opportunities must be awaited, especially those that are 'ridiculously certain'.
What is a deterministic opportunity? After a sharp drop, it consolidates sideways, then suddenly breaks upward; at this point, the probability of trend reversal exceeds 70%. Just like SOL in 2021, which dropped from $20 to $10 and consolidated for half a month, suddenly breaking $12 with a large bullish candle. At that point, entering with 5x leverage could turn 10,000 U into 1,000,000 U.
But remember: only roll long, do not touch short. The crypto market is generally upward in the long term, especially in a bull market where a 10%-20% pullback is a money-making opportunity. I’ve seen too many people short against the trend, clearly in an uptrend, yet insisting on trying to catch the top, only to be crushed by the trend. When the trend comes, don’t get off, and especially don’t trade in the opposite direction.
Three, take-profit and stop-loss: The 'survival algorithm' more important than technology.
Whether rolling positions is profitable or not depends entirely on whether your take-profit and stop-loss can be executed. My iron rule is:
Single loss must not exceed 5% of total capital; for example, with a principal of 10,000 U, cut losses at a maximum of 500 U and don't wait.
Single profit target must be at least 8%; once you earn enough, withdraw part of the profit and take out the principal.
Win rate must exceed 50%—in 10 trades, if 6 are profitable and 4 are losses, as long as you earn more per trade than you lose, you'll be profitable in the long run.
The most taboo is frequent trading. The cryptocurrency market operates 24 hours a day, and beginners always think 'not trading means losing', resulting in trading 5 times a day, and if they make a mistake once, they want to 'revenge trade'. In the end, they lose more and more. I’ve set a rule for myself: a maximum of 2 trades per week, no matter how good the opportunity is, to maintain my mindset.
Four, 5 'rulers' to judge tops and bottoms: Don't guess blindly; let data speak.
The greatest fear in rolling positions is catching the bottom halfway, and exiting the top before takeoff. These 5 indicators are my 'cyclical compass' that I’ve used for 5 years:
Ahr999 indicator: Below 0.45 is a bottom zone; 0.45-1.2 is suitable for dollar-cost averaging; above 1.2 requires caution. When Bitcoin dropped to $15,000 in November 2022, this indicator soared to 0.3, and that’s when I entered.
Rainbow Chart: The closer to blue, the safer (bottom); the closer to red, the more dangerous (top). But don’t stick stubbornly; it provided no warning at the top of the bull market in 2021, so it should be viewed alongside other indicators.
RSI Indicator: Below 30 is oversold (may rebound), above 70 is overbought (may correct). But don't trust it in a sideways market, it only works in a trending market.
200-week moving average heatmap: purple is close to the bottom, red is close to the top. Bitcoin has basically found its bottom near the 200-week moving average during every major bear market, and this rule has not been broken yet.
CVDD Indicator: Dropping to the green line indicates serious undervaluation; it accurately warned of major bottoms in 2018 and 2022.
But remember: indicators are tools, not mandates; they must be viewed in conjunction with trends. For example, if RSI is oversold but the overall trend is still down, bottom-fishing is just asking for trouble.
Let me say something practical: turning 10,000 into 10,000,000 in a year is theoretically possible, but it requires the market, technology, and mindset to all be aligned—none can be missing. 99% of people playing rolling positions eventually can’t even preserve their principal.
If you really want to give it a try, first ask yourself: can you accept three consecutive liquidations without panicking? Can you endure not trading for a month? Can you strictly follow the indicator signals?#Chainbase上线币安 #加密立法新纪元
