Is the prediction of Bitcoin reaching $130,000 by the end of July realistic considering the recent market performance?

Bitcoin's (BTC USD) performance over the past 4 months has created a mix of optimism and FOMO, with the latest ATH, but also leaves many wondering whether the price can rise higher.

Polymarket has provided some interesting insights related to Bitcoin price predictions.

The prediction platform highlights a 43% chance that BTC will maintain levels above $120,000 by the end of July, with only a 4% chance that the price could spike to $140,000.

Analysis shows that the predicted Bitcoin price above $130,000 is at an average level.

Clear signs indicate that there is not much certainty about BTC's bullish potential as August approaches.

While the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $130,000 in August is lower, Polymarket reveals that the chance of achieving a similar target by the end of 2025 is higher.

The exact figure is 77%, reflecting the medium-term bullish outlook for the market.

Key Factors That Could Influence Bitcoin Price Predictions

Whales and institutions led the latest price surge, along with moves to push for cryptocurrency-friendly regulations.

However, the price of Bitcoin has been trending sideways since Monday, indicating that the bullish momentum from the previous 4 weeks is cooling off.

Demand from FOMO investors into Bitcoin (BTC USD) is likely to allow the bulls to continue to dominate.

However, there are several key factors that could change the outcome.

Among those factors is the U.S. poised to reignite the trade war in the coming weeks.

The last time the trade war escalated, the cryptocurrency market saw a significant drop in sentiment.

Analysts are also closely monitoring the inflation situation, a factor that continues to influence the FED's interest rate decisions.

This could add pressure to the market and force investors to change strategies in the coming weeks.

The possibility of Bitcoin's price being disrupted could confuse investors and potentially lead to another price drop. If that happens, Bitcoin could regain its downward momentum.

Notably, the remaining time in July may provide some buffer space, primarily categorized as strong market manipulation.

This Is How Smart Money Moves This Week

The price of Bitcoin (BTC USD) rose above $118,000 after recovering from Friday's low of $118,022. The narrow and sideways price movement indicates weakening demand.

On-chain data shows a surge in selling pressure. The net cash flow data from the Bitcoin exchange indicates a shift between outflows and inflows over the past 7 days.

The cash flow out of the Binance exchange mainly occurred between the lowest levels of BTC in April and the recent highs.

According to recent analysis from Cryptoquant, cash flow into the exchange has reached approximately $2.7 billion since July 11.

This aligns with the latest cryptocurrency efforts to maintain bullish momentum.

Foreign exchange reserves have increased from 2.39 million BTC on July 10 to 2.43 million BTC on July 18. This confirms that there has been a significant amount of profit-taking.

There has been a significant decrease in cash flow into the BTC exchange over the past 24 hours, which may signal weak selling pressure throughout the weekend.

This could set the stage for another bullish run next week if demand continues. However, large order book statistics on Coinglass show that cash flow on three major exchanges is in the negative.

On the other hand, futures contracts, particularly on Binance, signal bullish bets exceeding $400 million.

The situation on exchanges highlights the potential for another manipulation event that could push BTC's volatility higher.

Open interest in Bitcoin remains high at over $85 billion at the time of observation, indicating that there is still high derivative activity.