The crypto market is becoming increasingly unpredictable. BTC price around 117K–120K, ETH weakening below 3,200 and altcoin 📈 Overview of the crypto market cycle:
The market cycle usually consists of 4 main stages:
1. Accumulation
2. Strong Growth
3. Distribution
4. Markdown
Accompanied by the investor sentiment chart including: hope → excitement → peak → anxiety → panic → capitulation → recovery.
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📊 Current position: End of “Distribution” or beginning of “Light Markdown”?
• BTC has reached a new ATH around 123K but there is no longer strong cash flow as before.
• ETH has an ETF but the price has dropped from $3,700 to $3,400 – a sign of “selling the news”
• Altcoins like DOT, ARB, AVAX, NEAR… are moving sideways – gradually decreasing – low volume, indicating the initial stage of a light “markdown.”
🧠 Current market sentiment: No more FOMO – no more expectations – only waiting, doubt, and anxiety.
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🔮 So what’s next?
1. If BTC maintains the trend above 110K–115K, this is just a “reduction to rest” phase – the market will return to a strong growth cycle (next altseason).
2. If BTC breaks below 110K, the likelihood of entering a “markdown” becomes clearer, dragging altcoins down another 20–30% before a real recovery at the end of the year.
✅ Do not FOMO into coins that haven’t run yet, as most are in the “dead zone.”
✅ Prioritize holding BTC and ETH if you have a good position.
✅ For altcoins – if you are heavily in loss, selectively choose potential coins for DCA, do not spread your money thin anymore.
✅ Observe the ETF cash flow, especially ETH ETF – if it continues to attract capital, the next surge could come very quickly.
