Capital is shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins, with TOTAL2 (the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding BTC) reaching $1.5 trillion on Friday, the long-term resistance level last tested in January 2025.
Although the market may stagnate within this range, the long-term trend still provides opportunities for breaking through $1.5 trillion and moving towards $1.72 trillion in historical market value.
If the monthly closing price of TOTAL2 exceeds $1.51 trillion, it will be the highest closing price in the history of this altcoin index.
The surge in stablecoins continues to drive the upward trend of altcoins this quarter.
Binance's USDT and USDC balances reached a new high of $31 billion in June 2025. As the inflow of stablecoins into centralized exchanges like Binance and HTX surges, this wave of liquidity remains strong, reaching $895 million and $819 million respectively that week.
This shift reflects a continued interest in Bitcoin and the potential for deeper accumulation of major altcoins.
On Wednesday, over $2 billion in stablecoins (mainly USDT) were deposited into major derivatives exchanges, indicating an increased demand for leverage from professional investors. Tether Treasury continues to issue USDT, further confirming that institutional investors' demand for USDT is growing, while risk appetite is also increasing.
Binance accounts for over 55% of global trading volume, with a daily trading volume exceeding $8 billion. Meanwhile, the amount of BTC deposited by whale users into the exchange has decreased by $2.25 billion, indicating that the selling pressure on Bitcoin is easing. This could open the door for capital to shift towards altcoins.
While Bitcoin remains the center of market liquidity, current data shows that institutions and large traders are quietly restructuring their portfolios in preparation for the next breakthrough in the altcoin market.
The altcoin season has just begun – the target for TOTAL3 is $5 trillion.
The TOTAL3 index (the total market capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) is currently around $1 trillion and is still in the early stages of the cycle. It is expected that this index will reach $5 trillion in this cycle, with a growth rate of 400%.
The altcoin cycle typically occurs in phases: first breaking out of a long-term accumulation zone, then steadily rising, and finally surging sharply within a few months—this period brings explosive profits but can easily leave latecomers behind.
The data from the Altseason Index also indicates that a trend is forming. The 30-day indicator has just crossed 75, suggesting that funds are gradually shifting towards altcoins. However, the 60-day indicator remains low, indicating that there are not many altcoins capable of outperforming Bitcoin in the long run.
Positive sentiment is warming up, and capital flows are also starting to improve. Investors are advised to remain patient and adopt rigorous strategies to maximize investment opportunities in the future.
From Bitcoin to Ethereum, everything points to a core trend: where institutional money is, the market hotspots will be. This means that if this round of 'altcoin season' starts, it may be more driven by institutional funds rather than traditional sector rotation or speculative frenzy. In other words, sectors that can accommodate large amounts of capital or overflow from institutional funds may be more attractive. Moreover, the participation of institutional funds not only brings more stable capital flow but may also drive the market towards a more mature and rational direction.
The rhythm of this entire round is essentially a natural chain of 'liquidity sinking.' Starting from BTC leading the way, funds migrate step by step: ETH, mainstream altcoins, mid-cap coins, and then to meme and low-cap tokens. Throughout this process, volatility and market acceleration continue to increase.
Structurally, we are at the starting point of the 'ETH phase': rotation is beginning to show, and it has not overheated, with the opportunity window still wide open. ETH's strength will further drive liquidity to continue migrating downward, while retail investors' FOMO sentiment has not yet been fully ignited. The fear and greed index still has some space from extreme emotions. This also means that there is still enough room for this cycle to rise.
The direction of the entire market is becoming very clear: BTC has ignited the fuse, ETH is taking the baton to accelerate, and high-market-cap tokens will quickly catch up. After this, a true comprehensive altcoin season will arrive as expected, with mid-cap coins, memecoins, and various conceptual coins taking turns until all liquidity is exhausted.
ETH's leading performance is not only a confirmation of the trend but also the starting point for the next phase.