The current ETH market resembles a suspenseful game. At 4 a.m., while many were still struggling over short-term oscillations and whether to stop losses, ETH had quietly rebounded from a low of $2979 to $3674, with an intraday increase of 3.96%, firmly standing above the $3600 resistance level.
Positive support: Dual drive from institutions and policies
The concerns on the technical front are temporarily suppressed by two major positives:
Institutions continue to increase their positions: SharpLink Gaming, known as 'crypto micro-strategy,' has made another move, purchasing 4,904 ETH this morning, bringing their total holdings to 358,000 ETH, with an average holding price of $2825, resulting in an unrealized profit of $260 million. This substantial increase in real capital undoubtedly injects a shot of adrenaline into the market.
Favorable policies are taking effect: The U.S. House of Representatives has just passed three cryptocurrency bills, directly igniting market risk appetite and paving the way for ETH's rise.
Technical undercurrents: Is it gathering strength for an upward attack or hiding deadly traps?
On the 4-hour K-line chart, ETH's upward channel remains intact, like a fully drawn bow. The $3500 position forms a 'guiding finger' pattern, while the support level at $2979 has been tested three times without being broken, indicating that the bulls are temporarily stable.
But hidden concerns lurk in the details:
Volume-price divergence showing: Although yesterday's trading volume reached $5.996 billion, when the price hit a new high, the volume was only 80% of the previous high, signaling a 'price increase with volume decrease' that deserves caution.
Indicators issue warnings: The MACD red energy bars have shortened for five consecutive times, the KDJ has formed a golden cross in the overbought zone (seemingly positive, but in fact, the overbought risk accumulates), and the RSI has broken 70 entering the warning range — this set of signals closely resembles the pattern prior to last May's crash.
What’s more intriguing is the market sentiment: The liquidation volume in the last 24 hours reached $54.78 billion, with a long-short ratio of 1.2:1, and the short covering pressure has reached a new monthly high. This means that while retail investors are still entangled in short-term oscillations and stop-loss decisions, institutions may be harvesting through short squeezes — this wave of market activity might be a 'trend battle led by institutions.'
Key variable: ACDE conference
(UTC) Ethereum ACDE conference will become a 'turning point' for the market:
If the EIP7907 proposal is removed (i.e., not passed), short-term bearish pressure will be lifted, and ETH is expected to surge towards $4000;
If the proposal is passed, it may trigger concentrated profit-taking, increasing the pullback pressure.
Operational thought: See the trend clearly before taking action.
Personal opinion: In the short term, be wary of pullback risks, while in the medium term, watch the breakout direction after the conference. Aggressive traders may refer to the 'three buys and three sells' rule (specific points need to be judged based on real-time market conditions), but the core is —
The real profit in the crypto world comes from 'trend positions,' not 'oscillation stop losses.' Those retail investors who frequently enter and exit during small fluctuations often find themselves out of ammunition by the time a trend arrives. Tonight's meeting is less about 'betting on up or down' and more about observing the true attitude of market funds — see the direction clearly, then decide where to direct your bullets.
Should you continue to hold the ETH in your hand or cash out for safety? It might be wise to wait until the conference results are clear before making a decision. The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the composure to stabilize at critical points.