On July 18 local time, the White House staged a historically significant event for the crypto circle. Trump signed the (Guidance and Establishment of the U.S. National Stablecoin Innovation Act) (GENIUS Act), marking the establishment of the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins in the U.S. This signature seemed to press the 'nuclear button' for the crypto market, as a storm that could rewrite the global financial landscape is quietly brewing.
Legislation Takes Effect, 'Powerful Medicine' for the Crypto Circle.
(GENIUS Act) is not just a piece of paper; it comes with a series of stringent measures that directly hit the core of the crypto circle:
Revolutionary Changes in Reserve Systems: Implementing a 100% reserve system, each stablecoin issued must be backed by $1 in cash or short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. This regulation directly pushes algorithmic stablecoins toward 'dire straits', and tragedies like LUNA are expected to no longer occur.
More Transparent Information Disclosure: Issuers must publicly disclose reserve asset details every month and are strictly supervised by third-party audits. Want to secretly misappropriate funds? It's simply impossible, making the operation of stablecoins more transparent.
Licenses Become a Lifeline: Issuing stablecoins is prohibited without federal or state licenses. Moreover, the issuance scale of state licenses is limited to $1 billion, putting immense pressure on smaller players.
Trump stated that the act 'both consolidates dollar hegemony and allows the public to use it with peace of mind.' Treasury Secretary Becerra pointed out more directly that global use of stablecoins is akin to indirectly purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds, further reinforcing the dollar's dominance.
With giants pouring in, what opportunities are there for retail investors?
As soon as the legislation was enacted, Wall Street giants began to take action, like sharks sensing blood in the water:
Bank Giants Enter the Fray: JPMorgan is testing deposit tokens on the Base chain, with the banking behemoth personally engaging in public chain business. Bank of America has also publicly stated its readiness to launch crypto payments once regulations are clarified. Standard Chartered has directly entered spot trading, providing a full range of custody and settlement services, openly challenging Binance and Coinbase.
Payment Giants Gaining Momentum: Visa's quarterly stablecoin settlement volume surged by 240%, while Amazon, Walmart, and others are quietly preparing to issue their own tokens. The heat of the crypto market is evident.
Retirement Market Holds Secrets: More shockingly, the $8.9 trillion U.S. retirement 401k is eyeing the market. Trump has ordered an investigation into the pathway of 'retirement funds buying coins'; if some funds flow in, it will bring huge increments to the market. Even if only 10% of the funds enter, that's $870 billion, equivalent to 22.2% of the current entire crypto market cap.
In light of the good news, which targets are worth paying attention to?
In this wave of favorable market conditions, three major directions are attracting attention:
Leaders of Compliant Stablecoins: The stock price of Circle's USDC surged 22% in one day. Its reserves are transparent, and it obtained a license in advance, giving it a distinct advantage. In contrast, Tether's USDT is facing severe compliance challenges.
Leading Exchanges and Custodians: Coinbase rose 4.3% in a single day. With Goldman Sachs and Bank of New York Mellon opening custody services, exchanges and custodians will encounter more opportunities as essential channels for institutional entry.
Bitcoin and Ethereum: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.76 billion in a week, highlighting the preference of institutional large funds. If 401k funds are opened up, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the $150,000 mark, and Ethereum, as a mainstream cryptocurrency, will also benefit from the influx of institutional funds.
In fact, Trump announced the establishment of a national Bitcoin strategic reserve as early as March this year. Now that the stablecoin regulatory framework is in place, the two are combining forces, and the framework of America's digital financial empire has begun to take shape.
It seems beautiful, but hidden risks remain.
However, the (GENIUS Act) is not without flaws; its points of contention are quite sharp:
Increased Monopoly Risks: If tech giants like Amazon and Walmart issue stablecoins, small companies will struggle to compete, potentially exacerbating monopolistic situations in the payment sector, which is detrimental to fair market competition.
Anti-Money Laundering Loopholes: Overseas issuers may exploit loopholes to enter the U.S. market, with Transparency International warning that this could turn the U.S. into a safe haven for criminal funds, posing significant challenges for anti-money laundering efforts.
Risks in the U.S. Treasury Market: The large-scale purchase of short-term Treasury bonds by stablecoins can lower interest rates and reduce costs under normal circumstances, but in the event of a run on the bank, the U.S. Treasury market could suffer instant heavy damage, triggering turmoil in the financial markets.
Overall, the signing of the (GENIUS Act) marks an important turning point in the development of the U.S. crypto market. In the short term, the stablecoin sector will undergo major reshuffling, with compliant entities like USDC and Coinbase benefiting. In the medium term, institutional funds are expected to flow significantly through channels like ETFs and 401k, with Bitcoin and Ethereum becoming core targets. In the long run, the $2 trillion stablecoin market may reconstruct the payment system, potentially further solidifying dollar hegemony through stablecoins, while Bitcoin, resistant to regulation, will become even scarcer.
This is not an ordinary market fluctuation, but a starting gun for an institutional bull market. For investors, a pullback might be an opportunity to get in, but it's essential to remain rational; avoid greed during tail-end trends, hold onto spot assets, and wait for the market's massive waves to come. Follow Lao Tang for precise targeting of wave points, helping your assets ride the waves in this crypto storm.#GENIUS稳定币法案
