Ethereum has continued its growth momentum this week, rising over 20% in the past seven days and surpassing the $3,600 mark for the first time in months. At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $3,617, marking a 5.4% increase in the past 24 hours. This price surge has attracted the attention of analysts who are considering whether the price volatility is driven by sustainable investor demand or short-term speculative activity.

Ethereum Futures Market Leads, But Spot Demand Lags

Data from the chain analysis company CryptoQuant shows that the recent price increase of Ethereum is mainly driven by the derivatives market. Avocado Onchain, a collaborator, notes that although ETH continues to rise, the underlying momentum seems to come from futures positions using higher leverage rather than continuous buying pressure in the spot market.

This discrepancy raises questions about the sustainability of the current price rally and whether spot buying demand will continue to increase. Avocado further emphasizes in the QuickTake analysis titled “Ethereum's Rally Driven by Futures Market — Will Spot Demand Follow?” that the Ethereum futures trading volume bubble map is signaling overheating in certain specific areas, indicated by a spike in trading volume.

The increase in futures trading volume, marked by the yellow circles on the map, coincides with ETH's price rise, implying that leveraged positions are largely responsible for this increase.

In contrast, spot market data shows relative stability, with no spike in volume, indicating that buying pressure from traditional investors has yet to catch up.

The analyst also pointed out that Ethereum's open interest (OI) in futures has reached a new all-time high, further reinforcing the view that the current move is speculative.

According to Avocado, the question for the future is whether the growth momentum from the derivatives market will eventually catch up with the real demand from the spot market. If this demand materializes, it could contribute to broader activity in the altcoin market, he added.

Institutional Interest and ETF Capital Flows

In a separate analysis, another CryptoQuant analyst, Crypto Dan, noted increasing signs of institutional participation in Ethereum accumulation activities. According to his analysis, ETH is being traded at a high on Coinbase, a platform often used by institutions in the U.S. and large investors, indicating growing buying interest from whale investors.

The premium level, described as rare recently, aligns with the trend of capital inflows into Ethereum-focused spot ETFs, which have recently reached record daily highs.

Dan stated that although current metrics do not indicate overheating, investors should still be aware of potential risks if strong upward activity resumes in the second half of 2025.

However, currently, the combination of increasing demand from institutions and rising ETF allocations may provide structural support for Ethereum, especially if the spot market begins to consolidate growth momentum in the futures space.