The SOPR index of Bitcoin is approaching the threshold of 1.02 – a point that previously caused sharp price corrections of 10–20% in the past.
Despite the high leverage, stable outflows from exchanges and moderate Funding rates create cautious optimism about potential volatility in the near future.
MAIN CONTENT
The 90-day SOPR of Bitcoin reached nearly 1.02 – a warning level for price drops of 10–20% in the past.
The NVT and NVM ratios have dropped sharply, a potential sign of slowing transaction demand and network adoption.
Increased leverage combined with stable outflows from exchanges shows the market is cautious but still has opportunities for further price increases.
What signals does Bitcoin's SOPR index show about price volatility?
According to analysis based on data from CryptoQuant, the 90-day SOPR of Bitcoin has reached 1.018 and is approaching the important milestone of 1.02 – a level that triggered 10–20% downward corrections in March 2024 and February 2025. In fact, each time SOPR surpasses the range of 1.02–1.03, Bitcoin usually experiences strong selling pressure within the following two weeks.
This indicates a significant concentration in profit-taking activities by investors. With Bitcoin trading around 66,000 USD at the time of writing, a continued increase in SOPR could lead to strong supply-side volatility, requiring traders to closely monitor developments to predict the market's ability to maintain its recovery momentum.
Bitcoin cannot escape volatility when the market surpasses high profit-taking thresholds; this is a time for investors to be cautious about the potential for strong corrections.
— Sarah Lee, CEO of CryptoQuant, 15/7/2025
Are the signals regarding Bitcoin's utility and usage weakening?
Data shows that the NVT (market cap to trading volume) and NVM (market cap to number of network users) ratios of Bitcoin have decreased by 11.21% and 16.21% respectively, according to CryptoQuant. These are indicators assessing valuation levels relative to trading activity and network adoption.
This decline indicates that the price of Bitcoin is rising faster than the rate of utility development and the number of actual users, leading to the risk that trading demand may not be strong enough to support prices at current high levels. In the context of positive news from ETFs and macroeconomic factors, this asymmetry could negatively impact price sustainability in the medium to long term.
The difference between price and network activity represents a warning sign of an imbalance between actual demand and market expectations.
— David Harris, CryptoFinance Analyst, 10/7/2025
Can increased leverage create a risk of strong reactions in the near future?
According to observations from Coinglass, the weighted Funding rate based on Bitcoin's Open Interest has become more positive since early July 2025, indicating a bullish trend in futures traders' sentiment. However, the Funding level remains moderate and has not kept pace with the euphoria from historical bull markets.
Although increased leverage heightens the risk when prices drop, which can lead to mass liquidations, the stability of the current Funding rate indicates cautious optimism and no rush. If SOPR surpasses the 1.02 threshold while experiencing a sudden spike in Funding, the likelihood of a significant sell-off is worth noting.
Key Metrics Time Threshold Impact Expected SOPR 90 days July 2025 Near 1.02 – warning level for strong adjustments Risk of correction 10–20% NVT Ratio July 2025 Down 11.21% Price rising faster than usage NVM Ratio July 2025 Down 16.21% Decrease in user growth Funding Rate July 2025 Maintained at a moderate level Cautious optimism, no signs of extremity
Why is Bitcoin's money continuously flowing out of exchanges while SOPR approaches warning levels?
Data from CryptoQuant shows that net outflows from Bitcoin exchanges remain negative, down 2.35% as of now, with a total of over 31,000 BTC withdrawn from exchange wallets. This demonstrates that many investors prefer to withdraw funds to private wallets for long-term storage or self-management of assets.
Normally, an increase in SOPR would coincide with many coins being moved back to exchanges for profit-taking, but this phenomenon has not yet appeared, indicating that selling pressure is not as strong as feared. This outflow also reflects a deeper accumulation cycle by institutional investors or large whales.
Will Bitcoin escape the warning signal from SOPR this time?
Although SOPR is starting to exceed 1.02, other positive factors such as stable outflows and normal Funding levels help the market maintain a more robust bottoming outlook. If the upward momentum remains strong and there is no excessive leverage, the Bitcoin market may avoid a swift sell-off.
Caution is still a must, as a sudden spike in SOPR or Funding could reverse investor sentiment, leading to strong volatility in the short term.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is SOPR and why is it important for Bitcoin?
SOPR measures the profit or loss when users sell Bitcoin. An index above 1 indicates profit, and surpassing 1.02 often signals high profit-taking pressure, which can lead to price corrections.
How do the NVT and NVM ratios affect Bitcoin's price?
These two ratios reflect Bitcoin's price relative to trading activity and users. The decline indicates that the price is rising faster than the rate of utilization, warning of the risk of imbalanced price and demand.
What roles do leverage and Funding Rate play in the cryptocurrency market?
Increased leverage raises liquidation risk, while the Funding rate adjusts the fee levels between long and short positions to maintain balance. A stable Funding level indicates moderate optimism, not overly heated.
Why is money still flowing out of exchanges when SOPR is high?
The outflow shows that investors are switching to self-custody or long-term holding, reducing selling pressure on exchanges, contrary to expectations of increased coin inflows for profit-taking.
Can Bitcoin maintain its price when SOPR reaches warning levels?
If the upward momentum is maintained, leverage is not high, and money does not suddenly flow into exchanges, Bitcoin may avoid a strong correction based on the SOPR signal.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-co-the-giam-20-sap-toi/
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