Bitcoin and Altcoin Evening Analysis | Capital Outflow or Locking Up Chips? Is the Altseason Far Off?
#BTC☀️ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Evening Market Update on July 17, 2025 | Key Range Games of Bitcoin and Altcoins, Is Altseason Still Gaining Momentum?
Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis
Current price: approximately 119,300 USDT, rebounding 3.1% from the low on July 16, having stabilized at the key support level of 118,000 USDT.
Technical Analysis:
Bollinger Band mid-line rises to 116,500
RSI rebounds to 48, MACD histogram contracts
Technical repair demand is still present
On-chain data:
Net outflow from exchanges exceeds 12,000 BTC for 8 consecutive days
74% of circulating BTC locked for over 2 years
Supply continues to tighten
🧭 Key Range:
Resistance above: 123,300
Support below: 115,250 (if it fails, may drop to 113,350)
💡 Operation Suggestions:
Mainly range trading (115,250 – 123,300)
Aggressive Strategy:
Try long near support: Long at 118,500, stop loss at 117,500, target at 120,500
Try short near resistance: Short at 120,000, stop loss at 121,000, target at 117,500
Long-term Bullish: Add positions lightly on pullbacks, focus on the effectiveness of support at 115,250
🧩 Ethereum (ETH) Analysis
Current price: approximately 3,380 USDT, has broken through the Pectra upgrade resistance level, short-term rebound of 3.4%
Technical Analysis:
RSI falls back to 58 (high-level fluctuation)
MACD momentum weakening, high probability of consolidation
On-chain positives:
ETH 2.0 staking volume surged by $700 million in one day
Shard and execution environment upgrades are benefiting and fermenting
🧭 Key Range:
Resistance above: 3,450
Support below: 3,268 (strong support), 3,070
💡 Operation Suggestions:
Pullback to around 3,268 can be a light long, stop loss at 3,220, target at 3,400
If it rises to 3,450 and meets resistance, can short, stop loss at 3,500, target at 3,300
Pay attention to rhythm control and wait for the trend to clarify
🧠 Conclusion: Is Altseason Coming?
Currently, Bitcoin's dominant position remains high, but on-chain capital flow is gradually changing. Once BTC's sideways time extends, and ETH stabilizes in the key range, funds may gradually spill into quality altcoin sections.
✅ Short-term opportunities look at structural rotation
✅ Mid-term layout focuses on liquidity flow
✅ Long-term holding still needs to understand the underlying logic
