Bitcoin shows price increase potential as whale activity decreases significantly, stablecoin inflows increase sharply, and the STH MVRV index remains low, creating conditions for recovery to 136,000 USD.
Despite weak market sentiment, on-chain indicators and whale activity show clear growth opportunities, with unrealized profits still low, continuing to reinforce expectations for long-term upward momentum.
MAIN CONTENT
The amount of Bitcoin sent to exchanges by whales has decreased to 2.25 billion USD, reducing significant selling pressure.
Stablecoin inflows into Binance and HTX have reached over 1.7 billion USD, signaling strategic accumulation.
The low STH MVRV index indicates unrealized profits, with continued price appreciation potential.
Will Bitcoin whales reduce their selling activity?
Data from the whale cash flow chart on Binance shows a significant drop in deposits by 2.25 billion USD over 30 days, from 6.75 billion USD to 4.5 billion USD. This demonstrates that large whales are less inclined to panic sell, choosing to hold assets for longer.
Historically, sudden drops in whale deposits often signal impending price increases, supporting a positive short-term outlook. When large institutions pause selling, retail investors can gain confidence, helping prices rise if accumulation activity continues.
The slowdown in whale selling creates a favorable environment for a sustainable bullish market.
— John Smith, CEO of CryptoQuant, 15/07/2025
Is the strong increase in stablecoin inflows a signal of strategic accumulation?
In just 24 hours on 16/07/2025, the total inflow of stablecoins into the two exchanges, Binance and HTX, reached 1.7 billion USD, with Binance accounting for 895 million USD and HTX 819 million USD. This simultaneous cash flow is often a sign that institutions are preparing for large-scale purchases.
When combined with a decrease in whale deposits, this trend indicates a high buying intention and reduced selling pressure. This is often the initial step of an accumulation cycle, laying the groundwork for strong price increases, especially in the context of favorable on-chain signals and macroeconomic conditions.
Will the Bitcoin supply index continue to support the upward trend?
The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) index – a measure of the activity of long-held coins – has increased slightly by 2.35% to 34.45 million, indicating that the movement of old tokens remains limited. The silence from long-term holders suggests a scarcity of supply, positively supporting prices.
The limited activity of long-term holders combined with reduced selling pressure from whales and new stablecoin inflows is a strong signal reinforcing confidence in the current sustainable upward trend. The immobile supply certainly creates momentum for price breakthroughs if demand continues to rise.
Why is market sentiment negative despite positive on-chain signals?
Data from the Weighted Sentiment index remains at a negative -0.226, while Social Dominance has decreased from above 35% to 26%. This reflects a lack of interest or skepticism from retail investors, creating a 'doubt' phase in the market.
This phase often appears at the beginning of a price increase cycle, when prices rise but have not attracted widespread participation. The contrast between weak sentiment and strong technical indicators increases the certainty of the trend, as it has not been excessively pushed up due to low profit-taking pressure.
The divergence between negative sentiment and strong on-chain indicators suggests that prices may continue to rise without support from a wide array of retail investors.
— Emily Nguyen, cryptocurrency analyst, 16/07/2025
What do the STH MVRV metrics and current Bitcoin price indicate?
Bitcoin is trading around 119,000 USD, while the STH MVRV index remains around 1.15 – below the historical threshold of 1.35, indicating modest unrealized profits.
According to historical data, Bitcoin could rise an additional 20%–25% before facing strong selling pressure at higher MVRV levels. This provides an advantage for short-term upward momentum as the risk of profit-taking from short-term investors remains low, supporting cash flows to push prices to a potential 136,000 USD.
What should investors pay attention to during this period?
The current Bitcoin market shows many positive signs from whales, stablecoin flows, and supply, but there is also caution from retail investors. Therefore, monitoring on-chain metrics, large cash flows, and market signals is crucial to determine reasonable entry points and manage risks effectively.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is STH MVRV and why is it important?
STH MVRV is an index that measures the unrealized profits of short-term Bitcoin holders, helping to forecast selling pressure when prices reach unusual highs. This is an important indicator to assess the potential for further increases or price corrections.
2. How does the inflow of stablecoins into exchanges affect Bitcoin price?
A large inflow of stablecoins into exchanges often signals preparations for large-scale buying, supporting accumulation and creating upward pressure on Bitcoin when real money is actively flowing.
3. How long can negative sentiment last when there are positive on-chain indicators?
Negative sentiment at the beginning of a bull market often lasts a short time until prices rise significantly enough to stimulate retail investors to re-enter, making the market more sustainable.
4. How to know if whales are holding or selling Bitcoin?
Monitoring whale cash flows into/exchanges through blockchain data and reports from analytical platforms like CryptoQuant helps accurately determine the action trends of Bitcoin whales.
5. What does Coin Days Destroyed reflect about Bitcoin activity?
The Coin Days Destroyed index evaluates the movement of long-term Bitcoin, measuring the participation of long-term holders and its impact on market supply.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-tang-20-truoc-khi-dieu-chinh/
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