On Thursday (July 17), Bitcoin hovered around $118,000 as traders digested weak U.S. CPI data and bet on a Fed rate cut in September. K33 Research noted that as the market matures, Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle may be breaking down.
Bitcoin, after peaking at $122,000 and setting a new all-time high, is currently holding steady above $118,000, despite profit-taking and potential overheating signals in the market, with analysts predicting the next resistance level around $130,000.
On-chain data shows that short-term holders have begun to take substantial profits, with unrealized gains remaining high. Glassnode's latest report notes that there may still be upside potential at current historical levels, but overheating signals have begun to appear, necessitating caution in the short term.
The report states: 'Short-term holders currently possess considerable unrealized profits,' pushing indicators into the 'overheating zone.' The unrealized profit metric for short-term holders rose to 15.4%, slightly retreating after breaking the 1 standard deviation threshold. Historically, this level 'typically marks the beginning of a top formation.'
Glassnode also noted that the realized profit/loss ratio once surged to 39.8, 'far exceeding 2 standard deviations,' indicating strong profit-taking. Although it later fell back to 7.3, it still aligns with characteristics typical of a late bull market.
The report summarizes: 'So far, both the proportion of profits spent and the realized profit/loss ratio indicate the first wave of excessive profit-taking.' This does not confirm a top, but 'this type of top formation often unfolds in multiple waves,' with the next resistance level expected around $130,000.
Meanwhile, traders are shifting from Bitcoin to other coins, with Ethereum and Solana also seeing increases. Ethereum rose over 7% due to strong ETF inflows; Solana increased by 5% as on-chain data showed Galaxy Digital withdrew $55 million in SOL from several centralized exchanges within two hours.
Ethereum broke through $3,400, supported by strong ETF inflows and robust demand from cryptocurrency firms, rising over 7% in 24 hours, marking its first increase since 2025, and hitting a new high since January of this year.
Trump denies wanting to dismiss Powell.
On Wednesday, President Trump’s comments regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Powell seemed to trigger volatility in the cryptocurrency market, as investors weighed whether he would actually dismiss the official soon.
Analysts say that if Trump attempts to dismiss Powell, this action could be favorable for Bitcoin amid resistance facing stocks and bonds.
When asked if he plans to dismiss Powell with eight months remaining in his term, Trump said, 'We have no plans to take any action. He has done very poorly, but I am not talking about that.'
Trump's remarks contradict a report by Bloomberg on Wednesday that he might soon dismiss Powell. Bloomberg cited an unnamed White House official saying Trump is about to take action.
(New York Times) reported that on Tuesday night, Trump presented a draft letter for Powell's dismissal to Republican lawmakers gathered in the Oval Office while they were discussing concerns about cryptocurrency legislation. It is reported that Trump acknowledged this meeting in his speech in the Oval Office on Wednesday.
Trump has repeatedly called on Powell to lower interest rates, claiming it would alleviate the U.S. government's debt burden. However, the Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged this year to see if Trump's tariffs will trigger new price pressures.
If Trump tries to dismiss Powell, it would be unprecedented. It is unclear whether he truly has the power to do so, but experts say this move could undermine trust in the foundation of the U.S. economy, impacting the stock and bond markets.
However, as a 'competitive store of value' to the dollar, some analysts believe that challenging the Fed's independence could instead benefit assets like Bitcoin and gold.
Trump and his allies have recently intensified pressure on Powell, accusing him of setting monetary policy in a partisan manner and criticizing the $2.5 billion renovation plan for the Federal Reserve headquarters.
On Wednesday, when asked by reporters if he thinks the renovation plan is sufficient to justify Powell's dismissal, Trump said, 'I think it somewhat qualifies.'
