Is the Bitcoin bull market approaching? This question has always been on the minds of participants in the cryptocurrency market.

Recently, Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating frequently, first consolidating in the $26,000-$29,000 range for five months, then dropping below $25,000 at the beginning of the month, and quickly rising back to over $27,000. This kind of 'door painting' market has left many feeling confused.

The current market has poor liquidity and is in a stock game phase, similar to the performances seen in the previous two bear markets, making investors feel that participation has low value. There are differing opinions on whether a bull market will arrive in 2024. Some are pessimistic about a bull market due to expectations of a global economic crisis next year, while others firmly believe that a bull market is inevitable.

The core argument supporting the arrival of a bull market is Bitcoin's strong cyclicality. Looking back at history, the three halving cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020 all triggered significant bull markets. Despite Bitcoin experiencing many negative and positive factors, its price has consistently risen in an exponential spiral, supported by the continuous development of the industry.

Bitcoin's market capitalization share in the crypto market is a key indicator to watch. At the beginning of the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin's market cap share was as high as around 90%; after the black swan event in March 2021, its market cap share also reached a high level. Currently, Bitcoin's market cap share is 47.88%, Ethereum's is 18.27%, combining for over 65%. Some believe that when the next round of Bitcoin halving occurs and its market cap share begins to decline rapidly, the bull market will begin.

One significant characteristic of a bull market is that most cryptocurrencies, even some 'junk coins,' may rise. The AHR999 index can be referenced to assess whether Bitcoin's price is high or low: <0.45 is the buying zone, 0.45-1.2 is the dollar-cost averaging zone, 1.2-5 is the waiting for takeoff zone, and >5 may not be suitable for dollar-cost averaging.

Many people expect the 2024 Bitcoin halving to stimulate a bull market, while others speculate that the bull market may come earlier or be delayed. There are also views that if BlackRock's applied Bitcoin ETF is approved during next year's bull market, it could trigger a larger-scale price increase.

Of course, the cryptocurrency market is full of opportunities and challenges; investment should be cautious, and one must avoid blindly 'going all in.'