Ethereum leads the way, how long until the altcoin season?

Let's start with the conclusion:

The altcoin season is likely already on its way, but still in the 'warming up phase', and a full breakout is expected in the next 1 to 2 months (late July to early September), but it depends on the coordination of several key factors.

Why do I make this judgment?

1. Altcoin bottoms are rising, and trading volume is gently expanding

Many coins are showing a pattern of 'slow rise with reduced volume', indicating that funds are quietly positioning themselves. This is not retail investors playing around; it's institutions or large holders accumulating.

2. Bitcoin market cap dominance is starting to weaken

When Bitcoin market cap dominance (BTC.D) peaks and then retreats, it's time for altcoins to take the stage. If it cannot break above 60%, there will be a signal for funds to flow into altcoins.

3. Narrative preparations are ample, with frequent hotspots

AI coins, RWA, gaming chains, Sol ecosystem, Base chain, Meme coins are all dancing in turn, indicating that the market is not lacking in stories; what it lacks is an emotional trigger point.

As long as BTC does not plummet or trades sideways for a while, it will give altcoins enough space. However, if BTC surges or crashes, altcoins will be drained or crushed.

Currently, the market is still a bit cold; people have not truly gone crazy. We will only see the main upward trend when emotions heat up, and exchange traffic explodes.

For example, if the ETH spot ETF is truly launched, or if the Federal Reserve clearly shifts to rate cuts, it will accelerate capital inflow.

In summary:

The altcoin season is like a summer thunderstorm; it gets hot beforehand, with dark clouds looming overhead, but when it will rain depends on the weather and the wind.

Don't rush; what needs to come is on the way. Whether you can benefit from the torrential rain depends on whether you set your buckets out early.