Bitcoin is signaling further increases with much room for development, but also faces risks of deep declines if it cannot maintain the important support zone.
On-chain data analysis and short-term Holder cost models indicate that Bitcoin could reach the mark of 136,000 USD or drop back to the accumulation area around 100,000 USD, reflecting the characteristic volatility of the cryptocurrency market.
MAIN CONTENT
The Short-Term Holder (STH) Unrealized Profit Index shows that BTC remains in the neutral zone, opening up the possibility of price increase.
Bitcoin price expansion cycles can last from 15 to 30 days, predicting another 18 days of potential increase.
The important resistance mark of 136,000 USD is predicted based on the short-term cost model and may see a correction thereafter.
How does the unrealized profit of STH signal potential growth?
Data from Glassnode shows that the STH Relative Unrealized Profit index remains in the neutral zone, not reaching the previously overheated threshold that appeared at past price peaks. This suggests that Bitcoin has not yet reached a local peak and still has room for price growth.
History shows that price peaks were formed when this index entered the overheated zone, for example in January and April 2024. Additionally, the VWAP chart also confirms that BTC price remains above the volume-weighted average, reinforcing the positive upward trend.
Bitcoin Vector, CEO, 2024: "The Unrealized Profit index is an important metric for forecasting price peaks. The fact that the index has not entered the overheated zone indicates that Bitcoin may continue to expand its price range in the near future."
Quoted from Bitcoin Vector, 07/2024
How long does the current Bitcoin price expansion cycle last?
According to the Optimal Signal indicator of Bitcoin Vector, Bitcoin is on day 12 of the current price expansion cycle. Previous bullish cycles have averaged from 15 to 30 days, suggesting that the upward trend may continue for about another 18 days.
Combining this data with On-chain indicators, TinTucBitcoin analysts predict that buying pressure is not yet exhausted, indicating that the cryptocurrency market may witness another price surge before correcting.
Why is the 136,000 USD mark considered a potential target for Bitcoin?
Glassnode's Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model indicates that Bitcoin has the potential to reach 136,000 USD, equivalent to +2 standard deviations on the profit chart, a zone that typically appears before significant corrections.
This is a key resistance level, linked to the history of pump phases recorded in 2024. If it cannot maintain upward momentum, Bitcoin may return to the accumulation area around 101,000 – 109,000 USD, or deeper at 93,000 – 97,000 USD.
Glassnode Research Team, 07/2024: "The 136,000 USD zone is an important threshold to monitor; crossing or failing here will dictate the next cycle for Bitcoin. Support zones around 100,000 USD remain a significant psychological anchor for investors."
Glassnode Research, July 2024
The chart of BTC holding cost distribution across price ranges
Price Range (USD) Meaning Characteristics 93,000 – 97,000 Deep support zone Strong accumulation area based on historical trading 101,000 – 109,000 Main accumulation zone Considered an important balance point before major fluctuations 136,000 Potential resistance zone Area to monitor for breakout to identify the next trend
What are the next volatility scenarios for Bitcoin?
In a positive scenario, Bitcoin could break through to 136,000 USD thanks to stable buying pressure and favorable On-chain data. Conversely, if it cannot hold the 118,000 USD level, BTC risks dropping deep into the accumulation area around 100,000 USD or lower, creating a necessary correction.
Frequently asked questions
What does the STH Unrealized Profit index mean? This index measures the potential profit of short-term holders, helping assess market heat and forecast Bitcoin price trends. How long can Bitcoin increase in the current cycle? The current price expansion cycle is expected to last from 15 to 30 days, with about 18 days of price increase remaining if the model holds true. Is the 136,000 USD price mark reliable? This is a threshold based on the standard deviation of the short-term cost model, which has a high probability of appearing before major corrections in Bitcoin price history. How low could Bitcoin drop if it cannot hold 118,000 USD? BTC could drop to the support zone from 101,000 to 109,000 USD, or lower to around 93,000 to 97,000 USD if selling pressure is strong. What are reliable data sources for On-chain Bitcoin analysis? Glassnode and Bitcoin Vector are two highly regarded On-chain data analysis platforms due to their accuracy and timely updates.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-co-the-tang-gia-lien-tuc/
Thank you for reading this article!
Please Like, Comment, and Follow TinTucBitcoin to stay updated with the latest news about the cryptocurrency market and not miss any important information!
