Friends, the latest inflation data released by the U.S. brings significant changes! The June PPI (Producer Price Index) data fell short of expectations, with a month-on-month rate of 0% and a year-on-year rate of 2.3%, both lower than market expectations. The implications of this data can be summarized in three points.
The pace of price increases for raw materials in factories is slowing, significantly reducing commodity inflation pressure.
The motivation for the Fed to raise interest rates is insufficient, with the probability of a rate cut in September rising to 85%.
Wall Street has begun to act early, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF absorbing $480 million last night.
Highlight 1: Investment opportunities in the data
Historical patterns show that whenever the PPI falls below expectations in the past two years, Bitcoin has averaged a 12% increase within 7 days.
In January of this year, when the PPI fell short of expectations, Bitcoin surged from $42,000 to $48,000 in a single week, resulting in a 15% profit for ordinary investors, which is a typical case.
From on-chain data, an unknown address purchased a large amount of 4,000 Bitcoins after the data was released, valued at approximately $240 million, with costs locked in at $56,000.
Analysts believe: 'The PPI acts like an 'early warning radar' for inflation. When the radar signal weakens, it indicates an increased possibility of rate cuts, and the crypto market may welcome a rise.'
Highlight 2: Institutions are actively laying out, with funds flowing in from multiple channels.
In terms of ETFs, there is a large inflow of funds: BlackRock's IBIT saw an inflow of $480 million in one day, setting a new monthly high; Fidelity's FBTC has seen net inflows for 11 consecutive days, with institutional costs stabilizing around $55,000.
Staking business heat is rising: The weekly staking volume of Bitcoin on exchanges increased by 37%, with annualized interest reaching over 8% (such as Binance Earn).
The Hong Kong market has new developments: CMB International has been approved for a virtual asset ETF staking license, allowing mainland funds to flow in through this channel.
Suggestions for ordinary investors: Three steps to seize the opportunity.
Seize the current price: If Bitcoin falls back to the $56,500-$57,000 range (near institutional cost line), it can be bought in batches.
Focus on opportunities before rate cuts: Pay close attention to Bitcoin spot ETFs (such as 2818.HK) to obtain gains before the rate cut in September.
Ensure risk prevention: Reserve 20% of funds to invest in stablecoin wealth management (annualized 8%), so that even in the event of a market crash, principal safety can be guaranteed and interest earned.
It is important to note that there is a risk of 'data lag.' The rise in oil prices in July may push up the PPI, but it is still a relatively good investment window. Remember two key points:
$55,000 is regarded as an important support level for institutions, with a probability of falling below it being less than 10%.
The market decline before September could be a good time to buy.
Conclusion: The current policy environment is favorable, and investors should seize opportunities. Looking back at history, after the PPI in January 2024 fell short of expectations, the Fed hinted at rate cuts in March, and Bitcoin surged by 42% in a single month. A similar situation may arise again, and investors are advised to hold spot assets, follow institutional trends, and capture major investment returns.
It should be reminded that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments carry considerable risks. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make cautious decisions based on their own circumstances.