After Bitcoin once reached $122,600 to refresh its historical high, the market trend suddenly changed. In just 24 hours, Bitcoin faced massive whale profit-taking, and the price plummeted to around $116,000, with the total liquidation reaching several hundred million dollars, and altcoins also retracing their gains.
At the same time, U.S. stocks show a divergent trend, the dollar index rebounds, and June CPI data meets expectations, providing some 'relief' for the market, but risk asset sentiment remains cautious.
Market hot spots overview: ETH, Memes, NFTs each showing their strengths.
Ethereum is independently strengthening:
ETH/BTC exchange rate rises, combined with institutions and U.S. stock funds continuing to buy in, Ethereum enters a 'slow bull mode'. It remains strong during Bitcoin's corrections, indicating that capital is rotating into ETH.
Meme sector explosion:
Launch platform $PUMP announces its first round of $2.1 million buyback, expecting a total buyback of $200 million for the year, driven by capital and expectations from the major exchanges, leading to a rise in PUMP.
At the same time, $BONK explodes, driving the collective movement of its Solana ecosystem meme coins such as $USELESS, $ANI, especially as $ANI is a 'Musk concept AI Meme', rapidly gaining popularity.
NFT Meme heat remains high:
Little Penguin $PENGU continues to surge, even applying for a U.S. stock ETF, with strong control from major players and hype in crypto Twitter, becoming a leading target in the NFT meme category.
Market correction, Bitcoin whales cashing out.
Bitcoin dropped sharply from $122,000 to $116,000, which is the result of old players 'cashing out at high positions'.
According to on-chain platform Glassnode, recently the whale group realized a profit pressure of $3.5 billion, with long-term holders accounting for as much as 56% and short-term speculative funds accounting for 44%. This distribution indicates that this correction is more likely to be a healthy 'hand-off'.
Currently, BTC is finding support around $115,600 and has rebounded. In the short term, pay attention to the support range of $115,600 - $114,500. If it breaks down again, beware of a deeper correction.
Historical signals reappear: the altcoin season window may have opened.
After studying the past few rounds of Bitcoin breakout trends, we have discovered a set of key rules:
30,000 → 44,000: Altcoins explode comprehensively.
45,000 → 71,000: Triggering the second round of rotation.
71,000 → 105,000 (after Trump's victory): Memes and payment types surge strongly.
These trends share a common point: after Bitcoin breaks through, altcoins will have a strong cycle of 3-5 weeks. Currently, BTC has broken the key structural level of $107,000, and if it continues the historical rhythm, we may be standing at the starting point of a new altcoin cycle.
But be sure to note: this round is more like a 'sprint rotation', not a 'marathon-style bull market' lasting half a year. BTC's dominance is still high, so this round of altcoin rises is more likely to concentrate on specific sectors rather than a general prosperity.
Which sectors are likely to take off first?
First tier: payment + banking tokens.
XRP, XLM, HBAR and other 'ISO 20022' standard payment tokens have shown early movements. Such projects are often regarded as the first landing point for capital after breaking through due to their connection narratives with the traditional financial system.
Second tier: blue-chip coin rotation catch-up.
BNB: BTC exchange rate is close to historical lows and is expected to rebound;
LINK: Fundamentals are stable, currently building a base for consolidation;
ADA: currently building a typical 'double bottom' structure;
TRX, DOGE: Traditionally burst during BTC breakout periods.
Among these mainstream coins, some have not fully launched yet or may experience catch-up in the next round of capital rotation.
Third tier: ecological tokens + strong narrative coins.
The Solana ecosystem shows signs of activity, $BONK rises by 89%, and $PENGU is aggressive; if $SOL can keep up, small ecosystem coins are expected to rotate and catch up.
L1 sidechains like SUI, APT, AVAX and other 'long-dormant' mainchain projects are also starting to test the waters;
AI, politics, Musk, gaming, and other strong narrative projects may also attract capital during hot topic shifts.
Operational advice: do not chase high, wait for rotation.
My current operational strategy is very clear:
Do not chase high-flying leaders, avoid meme coins, prioritize positioning in blue chips that are still at the bottom and have not yet exploded;
Observe the initiation rhythm of mainstream coins, waiting for the next round of catch-up capital inflow;
Narrative projects need to align with capacity and on-chain data, and cannot blindly 'follow the trend'.
Capital rotation is a hard rule, blindly FOMO-ing can easily make one a bag holder. This phase is not like the 2021 all-out frenzy but rather a 'structural bull market'. Whether one can make money depends on timing and selection.
Although the market is strong, calm judgment is required.
If Bitcoin continues to challenge $150,000, the top 20 coins are expected to experience collective catch-up. Funds will spread more widely into the altcoin sector, but the rotation window may still only be 1-2 months.
History tells us:
A bull market is great, but opportunities can slip away quickly;
Take profits when available, do not be greedy;
Once BTC's dominance rises, altcoins retract very quickly.
Stay bullish, stay clear-headed, keep an eye on BTC's dominance and BTC trading pair performance to win this sprint.