Author: VirtualBacon
Compiled by: Tim, PANews
PANews Note: The content of the article is solely the author's personal opinion and not investment advice, DYOR.
Bitcoin has reached a historical high of $123,000, but when will altcoins rally?
I have traced the last three Bitcoin breakout events to find patterns, and now the signals have finally reappeared.
What will happen next with ETH, SOL, XRP, and other mainstream coins?
Bitcoin is in a price discovery phase, but altcoin momentum is stagnant, and large-cap coins have not yet started.
Let's see what happens after the market breaks out?
Since mid-2023, every time Bitcoin breaks out, it triggers a collective rebound of altcoins:
$30,000 → $44,000
$45,000 → $71,000
$71,000 → $105,000 (after Trump's victory)
Every breakout is followed by a 3-5 week explosive window for altcoins, after which Bitcoin enters consolidation, dominance recovers, and altcoin gains are swallowed up.
Now, we are in a similar plot:
Bitcoin has broken through the $107,000 resistance level, currently rising to $123,000, potentially challenging the $150,000 mark.
If historical patterns hold, we are currently at the starting point of a new altseason.
But be wary: this is not a half-year altcoin carnival, but a short sprint.
Bitcoin's dominance has not broken through key levels, so this is not a full-scale altseason.
If Bitcoin's dominance does not rise further, altcoins will still go up. This is exactly what happened in the last two rounds.
The trends of the three major mainstream coins, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, have shown significant divergence.
Ethereum lagged significantly behind Bitcoin at the end of 2023, but each subsequent pullback bottom has been gradually rising.
Solana initially led strongly, but its momentum is now close to stagnation.
XRP initially performed weakly but saw explosive growth after last year's US election.
The signs of capital rotation have become evident
A noticeable phenomenon currently is that payment tokens have taken the lead:
XRP, XLM, HBAR, IOTA, ALGO, XDC
Tokens that comply with the ISO20022 standard are the first to gain favor with capital
Large-cap coins that have not yet launched will be my focus:
BNB: The BTC exchange rate approaches historical cycle lows
LINK: Continues to bleed but its fundamentals remain strong
ADA: Currently forming a long-term double bottom pattern
TRX: Ready to take off
DOGE: Always able to explode during Bitcoin breakout cycles
These are the core rotation targets.
If Solana starts to gain favor with capital, its ecosystem tokens are worth watching:
BONK has surged 89%, PENGU has become a favorite meme in the crypto Twitter sphere
Layer 1 clones are taking the baton: Sui, Aptos, AVAX (have not launched since November 2023)
TAO and PEPE performed well in 2023:
TAO: Increased 14 times within 5 months
PEPE: Increased 6.6 times against BTC within 3 months
They show strong narratives when Bitcoin rises; if a new 'shining narrative' emerges, we need to act decisively.
What is my current trading plan?
Focus on blue-chip tokens
Look for coins that have not yet launched
Switch to strong narratives when leading projects kick off
Temporarily avoid small-cap coins, they are not worth the risk
Capital rotation is key, do not blindly chase the highs.
Altcoins may welcome a strong cycle of 1 to 2 months, but history always warns: take profits, do not be greedy
If Bitcoin rises to $150,000, the top 20 coins by market cap may collectively rise, and some assets may see huge catch-up rallies.
Operate rationally, hold strong tokens, and decisively abandon lagging assets.
Maintain a bullish mindset, avoid falling into blind revelry. Keep an eye on Bitcoin's dominance and observe the activity of BTC trading pairs.
Although it is not a frenzy cycle like 2017 or 2021, it is still a solid and reliable window. Small-cap coins will eventually rotate, but timing is key.
