Has the short-term decline adjustment of BTC ended?
1) From the perspective of the strength of long and short positions in the four-hour timeframe, the short selling volume in the last two to three months has shown a decreasing trend, so a significant drop seems unlikely;
2) On the order book yesterday, there was an extremely large sell order amount around 120,000, with some BTC being sold by ancient fossils, causing significant price fluctuations in the short term;
3) The main funds have net outflows in both spot and futures within 24 hours, with a slightly smaller net outflow in the spot market;
4) On the 14th, American ETF institutions had a net inflow of 297 million USD, and there should have been a net outflow yesterday, but the ETF institutions did not have a large net outflow, indicating that ETF institutions are still likely to remain bullish on the future market;
Summary: BTC has fallen to the strong gravitational position of 0.618 in the Fibonacci ascending channel, which is around 106,000, and the short selling volume has significantly diminished, so the price falling to around 106,000 is basically a phase low. After some days of oscillation, it is expected to continue rising. The short-term decline adjustment does not change the medium-term upward trend direction and the expected target price.
In the previous article, I pointed out that Bitcoin's first target price is between 120,000 and 130,000. After oscillating for a few days, Bitcoin will aim for the second target price of 150,000 to 160,000. After Bitcoin rises to 150,000 to 160,000, due to the considerable increase, there is a high probability of encountering a significant depth decline adjustment, and a drop to around 120,000 or even 110,000 is also possible. Once Bitcoin reaches 150,000 to 160,000, we will analyze and judge at that time.
