25/07/15 BTC broke through 120,000 and retreated. Will the four-year bull-bear cycle lead to a long bull market or a slow bull?
Bitcoin rose to 123,000, and I saw many people saying: I actually shorted the world's highest quality asset. Many others said it would be good to return to the 40-50k range. I tell you, even if it falls to 10k or 20k, you won't buy it. If you don't have enough understanding of Bitcoin, you won't be able to hold it.
BTC has reached a historical high again, but there isn't much fear of missing out (FOMO) or obvious top signals:
✅ Mainstream media reports on BTC's rise are not overly enthusiastic.
✅ Coinbase's ranking in the app store has not yet entered the top 1
✅ No messages have yet been received from friends outside the crypto circle.
Ethereum is still 37% lower than its historical high three years ago. SOL is down 42%, and interest rates have not yet been lowered. The traditional financial cryptocurrency Treasury Ponzi scheme has just begun to accumulate, with no obvious signs of collapse yet.
Perhaps the only chart worth looking at is Delphi's BTC top signal: it includes a weighted compilation of on-chain, technical, sentiment, and macro data, and we are currently at 62 points. The top condition will start from 75 points, so buckle up and enjoy the ride.
Another excellent top indicator comes from CryptoQuant:
Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator
This momentum indicator uses the profit and loss index to track the bull-bear cycle.
✅ Bitcoin is currently solidly in the bull market zone (orange), confirming a strong upward trend.
✅ Not yet entered the overheated bull market zone (red), which has historically been a cycle top, with low volatility and decent financing rates.
Bitcoin peaked at over 123,000 yesterday but started to pull back in the afternoon, currently dropping to a low of 116,333, a pullback of over 6000 points. Rapid rises and falls are normal in a bull market. There is no need to panic; as long as it doesn't fall back below 112,000, it remains a bull market trend.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate is facing a breakthrough. Ether and altcoins have opportunities for catch-up, with Ether's decline being relatively small. In this round of the bull market, Bitcoin keeps hitting new highs, but the market response is very tepid, with no profit effect; no matter how much Bitcoin rises, it seems irrelevant to them. Most people do not hold Bitcoin, so they won't care; they are more concerned about whether altcoins and Ether can bring them substantial profits, but currently, that seems quite difficult.
Big Cake
Bitcoin reached a historical high of over 12300, followed by a rapid drop of more than 6000 points. This situation is very normal in a bull market. A bull market doesn't guarantee a bull market, and shorting is not an option; wild fluctuations are the norm. This situation is a nightmare for leverage, but clearing more leverage is more beneficial for the bull market's rise. The one-hour level downtrend breaks the rebound resistance at 120,000. Then we will see if it needs to consolidate or continue upwards; from my perspective, the probability of continuing to rise is high. As long as it doesn't fall below 112,000, it remains bullish in the long term.
Support: 11200—11400—11600
Resistance: 120000—123274
Ether
Ether reached a high of 3083 and has basically pulled back. The probability of continuing to rise next is relatively high, with the first target still being 3300 to 3500. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has a trend of about to break upwards, so there is a demand for catch-up in Ether and altcoins. As mentioned before, many altcoins have performed quite well, such as SUI, XRP, BONK, SEI...
Support: 2876—2900
Resistance: 3300—3500—4000
