The cryptocurrency market is about to experience another high-tension chapter with the anticipated unlocking of TRUMP tokens. On July 18th, around 90 million TRUMP tokens — valued at over $1.5 billion — will be released all at once, representing about 45% of the current circulating supply of the asset.
For investors, this movement is not just a number. It is a milestone that could redefine the course of one of the most controversial and politicized tokens in the crypto universe. The big question lingering in the air is: will this event sink the price of TRUMP or create a rare moment of appreciation?
Giant unlock: what is at stake?
This type of "cliff" unlock (release of a large amount of tokens suddenly) would already be relevant in itself. But the case of TRUMP gains even greater proportions due to some critical factors:
The current market value of the token is around $1.9 billion, meaning almost half of this capitalization will be made available all at once.
The unlocking represents a volume almost five times greater than the monthly average of TRUMP token releases (around $209 million).
There are signs of movements from large wallets (the so-called "whales"), such as the transfer of more than 1.3 million TRUMP tokens just days before the unlock.
These data are enough to raise the alarm: historically, unlocks of this type tend to generate intense selling pressure, with significant drops in the prices of the affected tokens.
Falling prices and tension in the air: has the worst passed?
The recent history of TRUMP does not help to reassure investors. The token is currently down 85% from its all-time high, putting the market in a fragile position.
When an asset is already undervalued and then faces a sudden increase in the available supply, the risk of a selling spiral increases considerably. Many holders may decide to "cut losses" and liquidate their positions, further pressuring prices downward.
But as always in the crypto market, the scenario is not entirely predictable.
Not everything is pessimism: factors that may support the price
Despite the evident risk of a drop, TRUMP also has some factors that may mitigate the impacts of the unlock — and even surprise with an unexpected rise:
Political momentum: the TRUMP token benefits from its association with the current US president, which makes it a piece of political speculation. Media events or decisions involving Trump tend to directly impact the token.
Support from large investors: recently, Justin Sun, a well-known figure in the crypto world, announced a $100 million investment in the project. This generated expectations of future appreciation.
Positive technical reading: some analysts point to chart patterns that indicate the possibility of reversal, with price targets in the range of $30 to $40 if the positive sentiment holds.
In other words, even with the real risk of a sell-off, there are elements in the scenario that allow for imagining a different outcome.
What can the history of other tokens teach us?
Mass unlock events have already caused strong impacts on other projects. Recently, the case of Pi Network showed how a large unlock can coincide with mass selling and sharp declines. However, there are tokens that manage to survive these events, especially when there is community support, a well-structured long-term plan, and sufficient liquidity to absorb the impact.
It is important to remember that each project is unique. Tokens with strong community presence, political support, and constant media presence tend to react in a less predictable manner — and TRUMP fits all these criteria.
Should investors sell, buy, or observe?
For those who already have TRUMP in their portfolio, the moment requires caution. Evaluating exposure and thinking about protection strategies — such as using stop-loss orders or partial portfolio reallocation — can make all the difference.
For those on the outside, the event may open an interesting window. If the price drops sharply shortly after the unlock, but the fundamentals remain solid, this could become a strategic entry point.
The most important thing is to keep the focus on the long term and not make decisions solely based on fear or euphoria. As always, studying the project, understanding its risks, and evaluating one’s investor profile are fundamental steps before any movement.
TRUMP enters a decisive week and volatility is almost certain.
The cryptocurrency market operates on cycles and unpredictable events — and the unlocking of TRUMP on July 18 promises to be one of those critical moments. With 45% of the supply about to enter circulation, all indications are that volatility will be high.
It remains to be seen whether the market will see this release as the beginning of the end for the TRUMP token or as a new phase of appreciation driven by political narrative, support from whales, and speculative optimism.
The only certainty is that this week will be closely watched by traders, analysts, and the curious. The coming days promise to test the nerves — and the strategy — of those betting (or doubting) the potential of the TRUMP token.
