The following analysis focuses on market reactions, related dynamics, and operational suggestions under different scenarios:
Market outlook under different CPI data scenarios
CPI higher than expected (bearish scenario):
The Fed may delay the rate cut until October, and the high interest rate environment may continue to pressure the market.
Bitcoin may face downward pressure, with a risk of a sudden drop of over 10%, testing the critical support level of 115,000; the altcoin market may experience increased volatility, and the risk of leveraged contract liquidation may rise, with liquidation volume potentially exceeding $1 billion.
CPI in line with expectations (neutral scenario):
The Fed is likely to maintain the expectation of 'no movement in July, rate cut in September.'
Bitcoin may consolidate near the 68,000 resistance level; rising Ethereum staking rates may hide upward momentum; MEME coins like SOL and PEPE may also experience significant volatility, with the possibility of a single-day increase of up to 50%.
CPI below expectations (bullish scenario):
The probability of a Fed rate cut in September may soar to 90% (according to the latest CME data), and market expectations for liquidity easing may strengthen.
The dollar may face downward pressure, and the crypto market may welcome a large influx of funds; Bitcoin may challenge the historical high of 120,000, and the altcoin market may also become fully active.
Related dynamics and viewpoints
There are reports that Trump's team may have secretly accumulated hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin; if the CPI data is weak, this could promote a rate cut and announce support for cryptocurrencies in the campaign program, which may be favorable for the market.
'Wolf of Wall Street' Ackman believes that shorting the dollar may be a profitable trade in 2024, with Bitcoin viewed as an important related asset.
Operational suggestions reference
Before 20:25, it is recommended that investors control risk, consider clearing high-leverage contracts, and retain a certain proportion of USDT funds to cope with market volatility.
Moment of data release:
If the data exceeds expectations, consider shorting through related leveraged tokens (such as BTC3L/ETH3S).
If the data is below expectations, pay attention to investment opportunities in Coinbase stock (COIN) and Bitcoin spot.
In the late night, focus on the RWA track (such as Ondo/TRU) and AI sector (such as FET/AGIX), with institutions like BlackRock confirming their movements in related fields.
It is essential to emphasize that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the above analysis is merely speculation based on market expectations; actual trends may be influenced by various factors. Investors should remain rational, fully assess their risk tolerance, and avoid blindly following the crowd. Independent judgment and risk control are crucial in the investment process.
