Analysis of the Market Trend in July 2025 $BTC $AAVE $PENGU
1. Significant Legislative Movements in the U.S. 'Crypto Week'
Starting from July 14, the U.S. Congress will review three major bills including the GENIUS Act (Stablecoin Regulatory Act), the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Regulatory Framework Bill), and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act (Anti-Central Bank Digital Currency Act) to promote the legalization of crypto assets, which has triggered Bitcoin to reach a new high of approximately $123,000.
2. Bitcoin Hits New High, Short-Term Pullback Pressure Increases
BTC briefly surpassed $120,000 but quickly fluctuated back to the range of $117,000–$122,000, leading to expanded market volatility.
3. Altcoins Exit Binance, Signifying Major Structural Change
CryptoQuant reports indicate that large holders have withdrawn altcoins such as LINK, DOGE, and AAVE from Binance, suggesting long-term positioning and reduced spot supply, with bulls weakening. The Altcoin Season Index has rebounded but remains weak. Binance data shows that the Alt Season Index has risen from a low of 15 in June to 32, indicating a potential rotation signal but still not ignited.
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This Week's Strategy: Short Altcoins
1. High Point Pressure After Event-Driven Market
As congressional proposals intensify, Bitcoin often surges, with altcoins following but lacking fundamental support. Once a large number of investors exit, if Bitcoin pulls back, the altcoin bulls behind it will face liquidation risks.
2. Exchange Inventory Depletion → Favorable for Bears
A large outflow of altcoins from exchanges means reduced selling pressure and lower liquidity, which can easily lead to price fluctuations. Once short-term bullish signals wane, a downward channel will quickly form.
3. Opportunities for High-Leverage Liquidation
Popular altcoins like M, HYPE, and PENGU have high contract open interest; if prices decline, this will trigger liquidations in the short term.
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