$ETH Bitcoin's early market shows a stepwise pullback, continuously declining from the 120,000 mark, breaking through key support levels of 118,500 and 117,000 in succession, hitting a low of 116,338, and currently rebounding slightly to around 117,500. Yunlu's early morning suggestion of going long near 119,000 decisively reversed to short after breaking the 118,500 support level, capturing over 2,000 points of space. Ethereum is also weakening, retreating from a high of 3,023 to a low of 2,932, currently reported around 2,970, while simultaneously capturing over 40 points of profit on the short side of Bitcoin.
Technical indicators show the market is weakening in the short term: Bitcoin's 4-hour MACD death cross accelerates downward, RSI breaks below 40 entering the weak zone; Ethereum's 1-hour KDJ enters the oversold zone, and trading volume has significantly increased compared to yesterday. Two major technical signals need to be closely monitored: if Bitcoin recovers 118,800, it will disrupt the current downward structure; if Ethereum's weekly close is below 2,900, it may trigger a medium-term bearish trend. The current market sentiment index has dropped to 35, historical data shows that similar scenarios have a 68% chance of rebounding within 72 hours, but we need to wait for clear stop-loss signals to confirm.
Bitcoin suggestion: A light position can be attempted to short near 117,500, with a stop loss set above 118,200, targeting the range of 116,500-116,000; if broken, continue to look down to 114,500;
Ethereum suggestion: Lay out short positions in the 2,980-3,000 resistance zone, with a stop loss at 3,025, targeting 2,940-2,920, and if broken, look down to 2,880