$BTC Bitcoin's early market shows a stepped correction, continuously declining from the 120,000 mark, successively breaking through the key support levels of 118,500 and 117,000, reaching a low of 116,338, currently rebounding slightly to around 117,500. Yunlu's morning suggestion for a long position near 119,000 was decisively reversed to short after breaking the 118,500 support level, capturing over 2,000 points of movement. Ethereum is also weakening, falling from a high of 3,023 to a low of 2,932, currently reported around 2,970, with the short position in Bitcoin yielding a profit of over 40 points.
Technical indicators show the market is weakening in the short term: Bitcoin's 4-hour MACD has crossed downward, accelerating the decline, and the RSI has dropped below 40, entering the weak zone; Ethereum's 1-hour KDJ has entered the oversold zone, with trading volume significantly increasing compared to yesterday. Two major technical signals need close attention: if Bitcoin recovers above 118,800, it will disrupt the current downward structure; if Ethereum's weekly closing is below 2,900, it may trigger a mid-term trend reversal to bearish. The current market sentiment index has dropped to 35, and historical data shows that in similar situations, the probability of a rebound within 72 hours is 68%, but a clear signal of stopping the decline is needed for confirmation.
Bitcoin suggestion: You can lightly short near 117,500, with a stop loss set above 118,200, targeting the range of 116,500-116,000; if it breaks, continue to look down to 114,500;
Ethereum suggestion: Set up short positions in the 2,980-3,000 resistance zone, with a stop loss at 3,025, targeting 2,940-2,920; if it breaks, look down to 2,880.
