Written by: Golem (@web3_golem)
Being a Bitcoin investor is really hard; every day is filled with the fear of rising prices.
OKX market data shows that Bitcoin today rose to break through 120,000 USD, setting a new historical high. Altcoins are also performing well; according to Quantify Crypto data, among the top 200 altcoins by market capitalization, only 15 tokens declined in the past 24 hours, while the rest are in an altcoin trend. Among them, HBAR rose over 25% in the past 24 hours, and SUI rose over 12.18% in the past 24 hours. Major altcoins such as ETH, SOL, BNB, and XRP also had increases of 1% to 5% in the past 24 hours.
At the same time, the rise of cryptocurrency concept stocks in the Hong Kong stock market also continues to expand, with OK Blockchain Chain rising over 30%, Xiong'an Technology rising 18%, and Blueport Interactive rising over 10%.
Just by looking at the chart above, one can tell that the situation is very favorable; however, unlike the times when Bitcoin previously broke through the high of 69,000 USD and the 100,000 USD mark, market sentiment has not experienced much FOMO. Although social media is flooded with various joyful news reports, community chat groups seem unusually quiet. Have industry insiders already taken profits and exited? Why is no one shouting 'take off' this time?
Investors overwhelmed by Bitcoin's rise
Even a slight rebound in altcoins after an 80% retracement can excite trapped investors, who will shout 'bull market'; however, Bitcoin, which continues to set new highs, even when there are currently no trapped investors, will find that the relative percentage increases are becoming increasingly insignificant, leading to numbness. Moreover, with the continuous positive developments in global crypto regulation policies, an increase in Bitcoin treasury listed companies, and the compliance operation period of tokenized stocks, Bitcoin has experienced three consecutive months of monthly gains since April 2025, with a three-month increase of over 46%.
Investor excitement thresholds are gradually increasing, with more expectations placed on altcoins. Google Trends data also shows that public interest in Bitcoin searches has significantly decreased compared to the levels during the bull markets of 2017 and 2021.
The latest report from 10x Research also points out that Bitcoin's recent historical high is not driven by market speculation, but rather by deeper macroeconomic changes. The increase in the US debt ceiling by 5 trillion USD, massive deficit spending, and the upcoming crypto policy report from Trump's working group are jointly reshaping the macro landscape. The report believes that Bitcoin has transitioned into a macro asset that hedges against uncontrolled fiscal spending, fundamentally changing its narrative logic. The FOMC meetings on July 22 and 30 may become key catalysts for redefining Bitcoin's role in the financial system.
Therefore, regarding Bitcoin's recent breakthrough of 120,000 USD, there was no direct stimulus in the market, but rather the result of a series of positive factors that had been fermenting previously. Cryptoquant analyst Axel Adler Jr. also found reasons for the rise in July from an empirical perspective, stating, 'Based on historical data from 2012 to 2025, July is one of the most reliable months for Bitcoin growth: 10 out of 14 cases (71%) showed positive returns. Moreover, October has the highest reliability, with the proportion of 'positive' months reaching 77%.
Altcoins show some improvement but have not achieved ideal results.
Another significant reason affecting market sentiment is that although altcoins have risen since July 11, they have not yet met investors' expectations. OKX market data shows that after 5 months, ETH today rose to break through 3050 USDT (February 3), but sadly, the highest price of Bitcoin 5 months ago (February 3) was 102,500 USD. Comparatively, Bitcoin still has a 17% increase, while Ethereum has completely stagnated.
The market condition of 'Bitcoin is strong, altcoins do not follow the rise and even decline' has been a topic of continuous discussion among investors since 2024. At that time, Bitcoin was supported by the US Bitcoin spot ETF and institutional purchases, while altcoins were experiencing a crisis of VC trust, significant unlocks causing price drops, and meme coins siphoning off speculative funds. Shorting altcoins became the main trading strategy at that time. Even until now, some investors still harbor reservations about altcoins and do not hold hopes for the altcoin season.
However, the crypto market is ever-changing, and as investors, we should assess the situation and adjust in a timely manner. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicted in July the approval probability of crypto spot ETFs before the end of 2025, indicating that the US SEC may approve multiple altcoin ETFs in the second half of 2025, with LTC, SOL, and XRP having a 95% approval probability, while DOGE, HBAR, Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche are expected to have a 90% approval probability. SUI is expected to have a 60% approval probability, and Tron/TRX and Pengu are expected to have a 50% approval probability.
In addition, various 'altcoin' versions of micro-strategies are being established, and CZ even stated that at least over 30 teams want to launch projects related to BNB treasury public companies, indicating that altcoins will usher in an era supported by ETFs and institutional purchases.
Multiple KOLs also expressed optimistic views about the upcoming altcoin season in July. LD Capital founder and 'General E' Yi Lihua stated that the altcoin season may need to wait until interest rate cuts are confirmed in August or September before the market truly experiences liquidity overflow.
Crypto KOL Miles Deutscher expressed his views on the altcoin market regarding the recent PUMP auction of 500 million USD in 12 minutes, stating, 'This indicates that when there are suitable opportunities, there is still a lot of liquidity willing to participate. Altcoins are not 'dead'; they just need the right narrative.' Further reading: (PUMP auction sold out in 12 minutes; which of the two scenarios after the opening do you believe?).
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, also expressed, 'The sentiment has changed; Bitcoin has broken through its historical high under good trading volume; Ethereum is following closely and is expected to outperform. The altcoin season is about to arrive, and the market believes that Trump will take unexpected actions regarding tariffs. The Arthur Hayes family office fund, Maelstrom, has increased its bullish positions.'
Of course, there is still a lot of information about the upcoming altcoin season, but listing more does not compare to the firm confidence that investors have in their hearts. Hopefully, next time we can shout together, 'Altcoins take off!'
