In the first trading session of the week, Dogecoin – the most famous meme coin in the market – surpassed the important resistance level of 0.2000 USD, recording an increase of over 44% since the beginning of the month. The price of DOGE is currently hovering around 0.2060 USD, surpassing the 200-day EMA at 0.2027 USD – a positive technical sign for the continuation of the uptrend.

However, on-chain signals indicate potential risks. According to data from Glassnode, the supply of profitable DOGE has risen to 86 billion DOGE – a warning level. This means that more and more investors are in profit, increasing the likelihood of mass profit-taking, leading to strong selling pressure and price corrections.

This is not the first time the Dogecoin market has experienced this phenomenon. Last May, when DOGE peaked at 0.2597 USD (up from a low of 0.1302 USD in April), the profitable supply also peaked at nearly 121 billion DOGE. Subsequently, a deep correction occurred, causing the price to drop sharply to the support level of 0.1429 USD in June.

Notably, the amount of DOGE transferred to exchanges is also increasing. From mid-June until now, the number of tokens on exchanges has risen from 23.2 billion to 23.5 billion DOGE, indicating that selling pressure may be subtly increasing. This is a typical sign of profit-taking.

On the other hand, market sentiment remains positive. The Money Flow Index (MFI) shows that money continues to flow into DOGE, while open interest (OI) on DOGE futures contracts has also surged from 1.64 billion USD in June to 2.67 billion USD currently – reflecting an increase in speculative interest from investors.

Technical Levels to Note

  • Important support: 0.2027 USD (200-day EMA line). If DOGE holds above this level, a new breakout may occur, pushing the price towards 0.3000 USD.

  • Danger threshold: If DOGE loses the 200-day EMA support, the trend may reverse downwards, returning to retest the low of 0.1429 USD established in June.

Conclusion

Dogecoin is facing a sensitive phase. While the current technical factors and market sentiment support the uptrend, profit-taking pressure from wealthy investors (whales) and the increasing supply of profitable DOGE may cause unexpected corrections. Investors should closely monitor important support and resistance levels, while considering appropriate risk management strategies in the context of a volatile market.