๐๏ธDate -July 15,2025
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๐ Key Observations:
1๏ธโฃ Current Price: $117,285.26 (โผ -2.97% in 24h) โ sharp pullback from highs.
2๏ธโฃ EMAs:
EMA(7): $116,521.98 (critical support)
EMA(25): $111,421.20
EMA(99): $103,608.87
๐ Price now testing EMA(7) after rejection at $123,218.
3๏ธโฃ Momentum Shift:
RSI(6): 65.11 (cooled from 85+ but still bullish zone)
Stoch RSI: 85.01 (MA: 94.62) โ overbought hangover persists.
4๏ธโฃ 24h Range:
๐ High: $123,218.00 (resistance wall)
๐ Low: $116,840.01 (support zone)
5๏ธโฃ Volume:
24h BTC: 28,483.64 (โฒ148% vs. previous)
๐ Current: 6,576 vs. MA(5): 15,543 โ panic selling fading but still elevated.
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๐ก Interpretation:
๐ Correction Phase: Heavy sell-off from $123K with strong volume โ now testing EMA(7) support.
โ Bullish Structure Still Intact:
Price > EMA(7) & EMA(25) โ no trend reversal yet.
RSI >60 โ bullish momentum cooling but holding.
๐ฏ Critical Levels:
Support: $116,840 โ $115,000 โ $111,421 (EMA25)
Resistance: $118,000 โ $120,000
๐ Volume Insight: 24h spike confirms distribution โ but fading now โ possible support bounce.
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๐ฎ Price Prediction:
๐ Short-term (24h):
๐ Hold above EMA(7) โ bounce to $118,000โ$119,000.
๐ป Break below $116,840 โ dip to $115,000โ$113,000.
๐ Medium-term (1 week):
Above EMA(25) โ bullish toward $125K+.
Below EMA(25) โ correction to $105,000.
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๐ Trade Plan
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๐ Scenario 1: Long at EMA(7) Support (Optimal)
๐ฏ Entry: $116,600โ$116,900 (EMA7 + 24h Low zone).
๐ Stop-Loss: $116,400.
๐ฏ Targets:
TP1: $117,800
TP2: $118,500
TP3: $119,500
๐ Risk-Reward: ~1:5
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๐ป Scenario 2: Short on Breakdown
๐ฏ Entry: $116,800โ$116,400 (breakdown below 24h Low).
๐ Stop-Loss: $117,100.
๐ฏ Targets:
TP1: $115,000
TP2: $113,000
TP3: $111,500 (EMA25)
๐ Trigger: 1H close < $116,800 with rising volume.
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๐ฐ Scenario 3: Swing Long at Stronger Support
๐ฏ Entry: $111,500โ$112,000 (EMA25 zone).
๐ Stop-Loss: $110,900.
๐ฏ Targets: $116,000 โ $118,000.
๐ Confirmation: RSI(6) <40 = oversold.
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โ๏ธ Risk Management:
๐ Position Size: โค1.5% of capital.
๐ Leverage: Max 3x โ avoid liquidation.
๐ Key Signals:
โ Go Long: Bullish reversal at EMA(7).
๐ป Go Short: Bearish close < $116,800 w/ high volume.
๐ Watch:
US CPI data (macro impact).
Bitcoin miner flows & selling.
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๐ Conclusion:
โจ BTC is at make-or-break EMA(7) support ($116,522) after heavy correction.
๐ฏ Best setup: Longs near $116,600โ$116,900 if support holds.
๐ป If $116,840 breaks โ switch to shorts targeting $115K & lower.
๐ซ Avoid new trades between $117,500โ$118,000 (choppy).
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๐ Updated: 2025-07-12 โ Reassess if price closes >$118,000 or <$116,400.
๐ช Trade with stops & stay disciplined! ๐
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