The 'money printing effect' on a macro level has become an important driving force. The U.S. has just passed a $5 trillion debt ceiling, and the Treasury has entered a 'deficit carnival' mode, injecting $13.7 billion of new funds into the market every day. Looking back at history, during the dollar's massive expansion in the pandemic in 2020, Bitcoin surged 540%, and this time the market seems to be replaying a similar script, potentially with even greater intensity.
The actions of the Federal Reserve are also being closely monitored by the market. Before the two FOMC meetings on July 22 and 30, the market generally bets that Powell might be pressured to cut interest rates early. Institutions have already acted, with giants like BlackRock buying $2.1 billion worth of Bitcoin spot ETFs in a single week, while gold ETFs faced an outflow of $380 million, indicating a clear shift in funds.
The aggressive moves by institutions to accumulate are directly pulling the market. The U.S. mining company BitMine has converted all its stock financing into Bitcoin, buying 100 coins at a cost of $105,000, and has stated 'only buy, not sell'; the UK-listed company Anemoi has invested 30% of its cash reserves into Bitcoin, calling it a 'core asset for the new generation'; the mysterious institution 'Strategy' issued $2.1 billion in bonds (at an annual interest rate of 10%), with the fundraising purpose clearly marked as 'to buy Bitcoin entirely.' On-chain data also shows that in July, over 1,000 Bitcoin addresses increased their holdings by 18,000 coins (worth $2.16 billion), with costs concentrated in the $105,000-$108,000 range, indicating a clear bottom support trend.
Bitcoin today is no longer the 'casino chips' of the past. The chief analyst at 10x Research calls it 'digital gold' for hedging against fiscal deficits and the devaluation of the dollar. Trump is set to launch a tariff war in August, and emerging market funds are using Bitcoin to hedge against local currency risks, with Bitcoin trading volume in Latin America surging by 40%. Meanwhile, there are new developments in U.S. regulation, with the House of Representatives declaring the week of July 14 as 'Crypto Week,' where they will vote on the (anti-CBDC surveillance bill), and Trump has tweeted his support for 'cryptocurrency soaring to the sky.'
However, most Chinese retail investors have missed out on this round of the market. Data shows that although Bitcoin prices have hit new highs, Google search interest has plummeted by 60% compared to November 2024, and the funding rate is only 0.025% (normal bull markets should exceed 0.1%), indicating that this round of increase is mainly driven by institutions, while retail investors have already been washed out of the market. Notably, there are new signals at the policy level, with a secret meeting by the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission mentioning 'strengthening research and exploration of digital currencies,' and Hong Kong brokerage GF Securities has also connected with HashKey Chain to issue coins, suggesting that the state team seems to be quietly laying out plans.
Looking ahead, there are both opportunities and risks in the short term. On the positive side, after breaking through $120,000, a large number of $130,000 call options have appeared in the options market, with thousands of large orders lurking for contracts expiring in September; the negative aspect is that miners are placing a large number of sell orders at $119,800 (close to the shutdown price), and if tonight's CPI data exceeds 3.3%, it could trigger market volatility.
Regarding ultimate goals, different institutions have varying predictions: Deutsche Bank analysts believe it could reach $160,000 (affected by halving effects and ETF siphoning); Cathie Wood is optimistic it could rise to $1.8 million within five years (approximately a 15-fold increase).
Overall, this bull market is interpreted by many as 'the last hurrah before the dollar collapse,' and the upcoming CPI data and the FOMC meeting on July 22 may become key factors determining short-term trends.#BTC突破12万大关 
