Bitcoin has reached a new historical high: its price once stood at $122,666 but has currently retreated to $122,000, with a 24-hour increase of 3.55%.
Regarding the long-term prospects of Bitcoin, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan analyzed in an interview that by the end of 2025, Bitcoin's price is expected to climb to $200,000. He believes the current rise is driven by structural factors and will continue for years — institutional funds are continuously flowing into the market, while Bitcoin's daily supply is only increasing by 450 coins, leading to a persistent widening of the supply-demand gap. 'Demand exceeding supply' is becoming a core feature of the new phase in the market, and this force will drive its long-term upward trend. Additionally, favorable policies, legislative progress, institutional implementations, and macroeconomic uncertainties together constitute a 'rare synergy' supporting Bitcoin's rise.
The institutional layout for Ethereum is also noteworthy. Data from Strategic ETH Reserve shows that the top 50 institutions adopting Ethereum reserve strategies collectively hold 1.34 million coins (1,340,820 ETH), corresponding to a value of approximately $3.95 billion. Among them, six institutions hold more than 100,000 coins, namely the Ethereum Foundation (242,500 coins), SharpLink Gaming (216,000 coins), PulseChain Sac (166,300 coins), Coinbase (137,300 coins), Golem Foundation (101,200 coins), and Bit Digital (100,600 coins).
From the perspective of platform traffic, the net flow data for Bitcoin over the past year shows that the stock of Bitcoin on platforms has continued to decrease in the past six months, with withdrawal behavior becoming more active. Although the intensity of withdrawals has slightly decreased in the past week, due to the extremely low number of potential sellers, the price remains relatively stable. This means that without systemic risks, the likelihood of large-scale selling by players is low.
On-chain data shows that despite Bitcoin's price hitting a new high, market liquidity and trading volume have not increased correspondingly. The current stable rise in price is not due to a surge in purchasing power but rather an extremely light selling pressure — most players have incorporated Bitcoin into their long-term holding portfolios.
At the macro level, the CPI on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday, and retail data on Thursday may all disturb market sentiment. If the CPI data falls short of expectations, it may weaken the expectations for interest rate cuts in September, but this impact is likely to be short-term, and subsequent data from July and August still needs to be observed.
Overall, Bitcoin has demonstrated a strong breakout trend, and this round of market activity is likely to continue, with a high probability of a fluctuating upward pattern in the future market. As the market gradually warms up, some strong altcoins may start to rally first, and the 'altcoin season' could kick off before September, at which point the market will experience a true overflow of liquidity. For players, this is a crucial period for researching and tracking potential dark horse projects.