On a macro level, Federal Reserve official Harker recently made it clear that current U.S. inflation has not yet reached its target, and maintaining a tight monetary policy remains crucial. Despite increasing internal debates about economic issues within the Fed, and the policy interest rate nearing neutral levels, he emphasized that 'there is no urgent need for rate cuts'. This statement once again focuses the market's attention on inflation data - especially the CPI data that will be released tonight, which could be key to short-term market fluctuations.
From the latest data, the market's expectations for inflation are showing an upward trend. Last month's core inflation was 2.8%, with market expectations rising to 3%, while the Cleveland Fed's forecast was 2.95%. Various signals indicate a high probability of rising core inflation. Generally, increasing inflation pressure may weaken expectations for Fed rate cuts, thereby putting pressure on risk assets. However, the current focus of the market has quietly shifted: players are more inclined to predict the policy tendencies of the next Fed, especially with Trump's recent public mention that 'U.S. interest rates should fall below 1%', which, although considered to have limited feasibility, has somewhat alleviated market concerns about short-term tightening, meaning that if inflation data falls short of expectations, its impact may be weakened.
Unlike the cautious approach on the policy side, the digital asset market is experiencing a frenzied influx of funds. According to CoinShares weekly report, the inflow of digital asset investment products reached $3.7 billion last week, setting a historical second-high record, and this has been a net inflow of funds for 13 consecutive weeks, accumulating a total of $21.8 billion, with total inflows since the beginning of the year exceeding $22.7 billion. Accompanied by the influx of funds, related assets under management (AuM) have first broken through the $200 billion mark, reaching $211 billion, and ETP trading volume has also surged to $29 billion, which is double this year's weekly average.
Looking deeper, Bitcoin has become the biggest winner, attracting $2.7 billion in a single week, raising its total assets under management to $179.5 billion, reaching 54% of the total assets under management of gold ETP for the first time; Ethereum has seen inflows for 12 consecutive weeks, totaling $990 million, marking the fourth highest on record, and over the past 12 weeks, its inflows accounted for 19.5% of its assets under management, even surpassing Bitcoin (9.8%). In contrast, XRP saw an outflow of $104 million in a single week, while Solana recorded a strong inflow of $92.6 million, showing a clear trend of asset differentiation.
More noteworthy is that Ethereum's market capitalization recently achieved a key breakthrough: according to 8Marketcap data, its market capitalization has reached $366.67 billion, with a 24-hour increase of 2.86%, successfully surpassing platinum ($363.87 billion) and ranking 34th among global assets.
Through the changes in Bitcoin balances on the Coinbase platform, one can more intuitively feel this. From July 8 to 10, Coinbase's Bitcoin balance increased slightly, but then fell back again. As of July 14, its Bitcoin balance was 918,000 coins, almost unchanged from July 9. From April to July this year, U.S. players withdrew 74,000 Bitcoins from Coinbase, exceeding the total amount transferred from BN and OK platforms; even when Bitcoin prices rise, U.S. players still tend to 'withdraw and hold' rather than cash out, which may be one of the core reasons for Bitcoin's strength in this round.
(Figure 1)
On-chain data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 2,498 coins (valued at $297 million) yesterday; although some institutions chose to sell off in the short term, overall market confidence remains stable. From the chip distribution perspective, 240,000 Bitcoins changed hands in the $116,000 - $118,000 range, with some players choosing to take profits, but this scale is very small; the real key is that over 4.4 million Bitcoins remain in the $93,000 - $108,000 range, accounting for 22% of the total circulation, forming a large chip concentration area to support the price.
Additionally, URPD data shows that there is a gap around $114,200, and there are also small gaps in the $112,000-$114,000 range, while historical data indicates that the probability of filling such gaps is 100%, which could serve as a reference indicator for short-term price fluctuations.
(Figure 2)
Overall, Bitcoin is in a slight short-term correction, but the adjustment may be limited; once the consolidation ends, it is highly likely to continue the trend of oscillating upward. For some strong altcoins, there may also be new opportunities for a rally after a short-term adjustment.
