Last week, Bitcoin finally broke free from narrow fluctuations, surpassing the resistance level of $109,000 that had been maintained for a month, and reached a new high of $119,000. The reasons for this trend are varied, but the trigger was undoubtedly the postponement of the tariff negotiation deadline, followed by dovish signals from the FOMC meeting, reports of the Shanghai Municipal State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission holding a study session on July 10 to discuss cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, and rumors about Powell considering resigning, all of which fueled the rise in the cryptocurrency market.
Affected by a plethora of positive news, Bitcoin has finally exited a nearly two-week downward trend and returned to an upward trend on the daily chart, establishing $110,000 as a new support level. As long as it doesn't fall below this price point in the short term and drops to $108,000, the upward trend of Bitcoin can be considered established.
However, it is worth noting that this wave of movement is mainly driven by futures, with no significant increase in spot ETF inflows, indicating that the market still harbors doubts about this trend. But if the upward momentum continues and the spot market catches up, the chances of Bitcoin breaking through $130,000 or higher will be very high.
Tariff negotiations and CPI data will influence this week's trends.
The key economic data to pay attention to in the U.S. this week is the CPI figure for June, which will be released on Tuesday. The market currently expects the CPI to increase, indicating that inflation will heat up, as June reflects the initial impact of the implementation of U.S. tariffs on inflation. If this time it is lower than expected, like in the past few months, it would indicate that inflation is genuinely cooling, which would mean there should be no doubt about the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September, continuing to stimulate optimistic market sentiment.
What is more concerning is the issue of tariff negotiations, as Trump announced over the weekend that tariffs on the EU would be set at 30%, higher than analysts had expected, causing market worries about the potential worsening of tariff issues. Meanwhile, important trading partners of the U.S., such as Japan and South Korea, still have grievances regarding tariff conditions, so before the August 1 deadline, trade relations may change at any time, affecting market investment sentiment. Currently, postponing the negotiation deadline only pushes uncertainty to August.
Additionally, there were rumors last week that Old Powell might resign, but he had previously emphasized in a media interview that he could not imagine any reason that would cause him to step down early. Therefore, whether he will really resign as rumored remains to be seen. However, if he does resign, interest rate cuts will advance to a new level, which would be very favorable.