As Bitcoin soars to new heights, some analysts call for reasonable exuberance. Others, more cautious, remind us that the party may not last. Behind the dizzying numbers and consecutive records lies a shadow: the shadow of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Because while the market anticipates an interest rate cut, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon plays the spoiler and shows the opposite. A negative surprise from the Fed could derail Bitcoin's upward momentum, especially in the context where retail investors remain strangely absent. Is the king of cryptocurrency running out of steam? The collapse.

Bitcoin is Rising, But the Illusion Remains

Bitcoin's recent surge to a record high, nearing the $118,000 mark, could signal a new bull run. However, beneath the shiny surface of the chart, a crack has appeared: the almost complete absence of individual investors. This is a bull run driven by institutions, by ETFs pouring in billions of dollars, but its roots remain fragile as they are not tied to the popular momentum that typically accompanies major bull cycles.

The Google search volume for the keyword 'bitcoin' has only increased by 8% despite these numbers and is still 60% lower than the peak level in November 2024, after Trump's election. A stark contrast reflecting a psychological reality: retail investors think they have missed the boat. What is the result? They are still at the station while the locomotive takes off without them. And this absence of public support could become a critical weakness if the macroeconomic situation changes.

Worse still, this apathy of retail investors is understood by some as a potential bearish signal. Because when an asset rises without public enthusiasm, it will lack a truly emotional foundation. Greed does not exist, which also means that panic is not far away.

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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, sows doubt in an overly confident market. According to him, traders have seriously underestimated the risks of further monetary tightening. While the market only bets on a 20% chance of an interest rate hike, Dimon bets on a 40 to 50% chance. A statement like a warning: what will happen if the Fed does not loosen, or even does not raise interest rates back?

CME's FedWatch data still shows hope: a 59.7% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September. However, beware of the illusion of consensus. Inflation is still driven by external factors such as tariffs, immigration, or budget deficits. Too many 'time bombs' could shift the balance in favor of maintaining the status quo or even tightening policy.

And in this scenario, Bitcoin could be violently swept away by reality. Because, despite its decentralized asset position, the 'queen' of cryptocurrencies is not immune to liquidity shocks or macroeconomic sentiment reversals. Interest rate hikes, even at moderate levels, can reduce the demand for risk-taking, and institutions (the current driving force of the bull run) are not highly regarded for their loyalty during periods of volatility.

The Illusion of a Record: When ETFs Mask Market Timidity

The paradox is clear: Bitcoin spot ETFs have never recorded such large inflows: over $2.7 billion in just one week. However, the retail market has never seemed so indifferent. The imbalance between institutional capital inflows and market stagnation could become the end of this rise if it relies too much on a single pillar.

Because a healthy market depends on balance: institutions bring trading volume, but individual investors bring momentum and sustainability. However, the absence of 'retail investors' raises a puzzling question: what will happen if institutions take profits before the public returns? The very idea that the current increase is solely based on structured funds, with cold and mechanical arbitrage transactions, should warn us.

And if the interest rate environment does not become more favorable, if geopolitical instability continues, then Bitcoin's strength may be tested sooner than expected. Those who think that $117,000 is the new floor may soon realize that they are actually walking on a plank suspended in mid-air.

Bitcoin is certainly at a high. But it is alone. Without support from retail, and with the threat of monetary tightening, the correction could be very brutal. The issue is not predicting a collapse, but reminding that any peak reached without popular foundation or long-term macroeconomic clarity is at risk of severe collapse. For his part, Arthur Hayes predicts the price will drop to $90,000 before it can increase tenfold.