$BTC
🎯 Market Trends
After reaching a new high, it is consolidating: BTC recently broke through $118K, and bullish momentum remains strong, oscillating in the $117K–118K range.
Continued large inflows into ETFs: In July, there was a single-day inflow exceeding $1 billion, accumulating over $51B in 2025, providing short-term support.
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🧭 Technical Observations
Flag pattern breakout: CoinDesk points out that BTC has formed a 'bull flag' pattern, and if it continues to rise, it can be expected to gain another 30%, challenging $140K–$134K.
Key price levels: $108.3K and $112K are support levels. If the weekly close is above this, it may open the door for the next phase of the upward trend; otherwise, if it falls below $107K, one should be wary of retracement risks.
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📈 Fundamental Drivers
Adoption by institutions and regulations: U.S. legislation (such as the GENIUS Act) is pushing for the approval of cryptocurrency ETFs, and companies with strategic Bitcoin reserves are gradually entering, with over 135 publicly listed companies holding BTC. The U.S. is also establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, and states like Texas are promoting regulations.
Favorable macro atmosphere: It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, and with the market's risk appetite rebounding, the stock market is strongly boosting BTC's continued rise.
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💼 Medium to Long-term Outlook
Target price: Global X estimates that by the end of the year, it could challenge $200K (+ about 45%), and Bitwise, Bitget, and others are optimistic that it could challenge $200K–250K by year-end.
Longer-term potential: Analysts expect it could reach $500K by 2030, potentially playing a role as a gold-like asset.
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⚠️ Risk Warnings
Leverage pulling but spot support is unstable: Glassnode indicates that current futures momentum is strong, but spot demand is not synchronized. A lack of spot support could lead to a pullback.
Macro & policy disturbances: If interest rates do not decrease as expected, trade tensions escalate, or cryptocurrency regulations tighten, it may lead to increased short-term volatility.
✅ Key Observations for the Short to Medium Term
Support/Resistance: If $112K–$118K can stabilize and break through the upper trendline of the flag pattern, the upward trend will continue; conversely, if it falls below $108K, it may drop back to the $100K range.
ETF fund movements: Continue to observe if the daily net inflows maintain high levels (> $1B daily average).
Macro news, legislation, and policy interventions: Pay special attention to the movements of the FED, GENIUS Act, and geopolitical news.
✍️ Summary
BTC is currently in a strong consolidation phase after reaching a historical high. Bullish momentum and capital inflows provide support for upward movement. If technical conditions align with favorable regulatory factors, breaking through $200K and even $250K by year-end is possible.
