๐๏ธ Date -July 13,2025
๐ Key Observations:-
1๏ธโฃ Current Price: $117,765.35 (โฒ +0.05% in 24h) โ consolidating near highs.
2๏ธโฃ EMAs:
EMA(7): $114,746.02
EMA(25): $110,088.50
EMA(99): $102,966.37
๐ Price is well above all EMAs, confirming strong bullish structure.
3๏ธโฃ Overbought Indicators:
RSI(6): 85.70 (๐จ extremely overbought)
Stoch RSI: 99.42 (MA: 99.62) โ pegged near 100.
4๏ธโฃ 24h Range: ๐ $116,900.05 โ $118,200.00 (tight range).
5๏ธโฃ Volume:
24h BTC: 7,888.93 (โผ 65% vs. prior 22,447.56)
Current Vol: 693.7 vs. MA(5): 15,435.91 โ ๐ low volume shows exhaustion.
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๐ก Interpretation:
โ Price above EMAs โ bullish bias intact.
โ ๏ธ But tight range + low volume + extreme overbought โ pullback likely soon.
๐ Key Levels:
Resistance: $118,200 โ needs big volume to break.
Support: $116,900 โ break opens path to EMA(7) ~$114,746.
๐ Divergence: RSI & StochRSI maxed out while price stalls โ ๐ risk of bearish reversal.
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๐ฎ Price Prediction:
๐ Short-term (24โ48h):
High chance of pullback to $116,000โ$115,000 (support zone).
If $118,200 breaks with volume โ rally may reach $119,000โ$120,000, but low conviction.
๐ Medium-term (1โ2 weeks):
Holding above EMA(7) ($114,746) โ uptrend intact โ target $122,000โ$125,000.
Drop below EMA(7) โ correction towards $110,088 (EMA25) possible.
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๐ Trade Plan
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๐ Scenario 1: Pullback Buy (Optimal)
๐ฏ Entry: $116,500โ$115,500 (support zone).
๐ Stop-Loss: $115,000.
๐ฏ Targets:
TP1: $117,500
TP2: $118,200
TP3: $119,000
๐ Risk-Reward: ~1:4
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๐ฅ Scenario 2: Breakout Trade (Low Conviction)
๐ฏ Entry: Only if daily close above $118,200 (with strong volume).
๐ Stop-Loss: $117,500.
๐ฏ Targets: $119,000 โ $120,000.
๐ Note: Wait for RSI <80 to reset before breakout long.
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๐ป Scenario 3: Short-Term Short (High Risk)
๐ฏ Entry: $118,000โ$118,150 (near resistance, RSI rejection).
๐ Stop-Loss: $118,350.
๐ฏ Targets: $116,900 โ $116,000.
๐ Trigger: Bearish reversal candle (pin bar) on 1H.
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โ๏ธ Risk Management:
๐ Position: โค1.5% of capital.
๐ Leverage: Max 3x (to avoid liquidation at range extremes).
๐ Exit:
Trail stop after +3% profit.
Close longs if $116,900 breaks decisively.
๐ Macro Watch:
Track S&P 500 & USD trends (correlation).
Watch BTC ETF flows (key driver).
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๐ Conclusion:
โจ BTC is consolidating in a tight, overbought range with weak volume.
๐ฏ Best setup: Buy pullback at $116,500โ$115,500 for superior risk-reward.
๐ซ Avoid chasing above $118,000 unless strong volume confirms.
โ๏ธ Aggressive shorts โ only near $118,150 with clear bearish signal.
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Reassess if price breaks $118,200 or $116,900.
๐ช Stay disciplined & trade safe! ๐
Trade from here ๐ $BTC
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