1. Ethereum trend: $4000 is not a dream, but first, we have to clear three hurdles.
Technical outlook: Golden cross widely opens, but short-term has correction pressure.
The daily and weekly MACD golden cross is strong, and the average increase after similar historical patterns exceeds 30%.
Key resistance point: $3060 (Fibonacci 0.618) is the first profit-taking zone; after a breakout, the target is $3600. If it pulls back, $2860-$2920 is the support level for adding positions.
RSI overbought warning: Currently close to the selling zone; be wary of short-term profit-taking pressure.
Trading pattern: The AMD trilogy is nearing its final chapter.
Accumulation (A) → False breakdown (M) → Distribution (D): Currently in the D phase, with distribution peaks usually higher than the accumulation zone ($3000-$3100). If Bitcoin breaks $120,000, ETH may surge to $3600.
On-chain and macro environment: ETF funds are the invisible driving force.
Ethereum spot ETF has seen net inflows for 8 consecutive weeks, with CME futures positions reaching $3.27 billion (the highest since February), supporting a bullish outlook for the medium to long term.
Risk point: The Ethereum Foundation's 'Master of Market Tops' title is well-deserved—historically, it has accurately sold at high positions multiple times (like after the May 2021 sell-off that halved the market). Keep a close eye on its wallet movements.
Operational suggestions:
Short-term: Take profits in batches near $3060; buy back on a pullback to $2860-$2900.
Medium to long term: Add positions after stabilizing above $3000, targeting $3600-$4000 (referencing Flitpay's prediction of a 2025 upper limit of $9345).
2. News front
The 'three waves of impact' from the tariff storm on the crypto market
Inflation heats up; is interest rate reduction completely off the table?
Logic chain: 30% tariffs from the US on EU and Mexico → Rising prices of imported goods (like the tomatoes you eat and the coffee you drink) → US inflation rises again → The Federal Reserve becomes even less inclined to cut rates!
Latest data: The probability of no interest rate cut in September has surged from 26% to 34%, while the probability of a cut in July is 0% (Powell: I’m just watching and not speaking).
Sancai's viewpoint: Delayed interest rate cuts = delayed liquidity = short-term lack of fuel in the crypto market, but in the long term, funds may flee to Bitcoin as a 'safe haven'!
Global trade war; is Bitcoin becoming a 'financial bomb shelter'?
The EU issues a stern warning: If no agreement is reached by August 1, a 50% retaliatory tariff on $21 billion worth of US goods will be imposed!
Mexico stands firm: Sovereignty will not be sold, but secret negotiations seek a way out...
Real case: During the 2020 China-US trade war, Bitcoin rose from $5000 to $10000 in one month; in chaotic times, gold weakens, but Bitcoin strengthens!
3. Is the altcoin season really here? Keep an eye on these 5 coins!
Validation of the rebound logic: Bitcoin rises by 10%, Pepe rises by 30%; the difference is profit.
Strong coins list:
Pepe: Retail enthusiasm remains high, large on-chain whales continue to add positions.
Solana: Leading in Layer 1 competition, ecosystem TVL grows against the trend.
Sui: The fastest technology iteration among new public chains, with an increasing institutional holding ratio.
Doge/Bonk: The meme combination of Musk and Trump; high volatility but strong explosive power.
Warning:
NASDAQ death cross + 40% increase without correction; if the US stock market crashes, it will drag down the crypto market!
Retail investor sob story: James' $110,000 short on BTC led to a million-dollar liquidation—adding positions against the trend and stubbornly holding stop-losses is a shortcut to bankruptcy.
"The biggest fear in a bull market is not a correction, but being on the sidelines during a rise and fully invested during a drop!"
Next Tuesday, the CPI inflation data collides with the tariff powder keg; it will either crash down or rocket up! The Sancai Legion's exclusive strategy is ready.
Pay attention to Sancai; this bull market will help you escape the top and buy the bottom beautifully!#ETH突破3000 #CPI数据
