When Musk tweets, Dogecoin jumps; if the ETF really gets approved, Dogecoin will take you on a trip to the moon! Understanding these two indicators will give you a clearer idea of Dogecoin's ups and downs!
Technical aspect:
Where are we stuck now?
Dogecoin is currently pressed under the 'ceiling' at $0.20 - $0.22. Why is this area so tough? Because it is both a long-term trend line (200-day moving average) and a pressure line on the chart (the upper triangle), facing dual resistance, making it difficult to break through!
Let me add: You can imagine Dogecoin trying to jump over a high bar; if it clears it, the sky is the limit, but if it can't, it might fall. This 'ceiling' is the battleground where both bulls and bears are fiercely competing.
What happens if it breaks through the 'ceiling'? It takes off!
If Dogecoin can strongly break through the $0.22 ceiling, it could be very explosive! It might force short-sellers (those betting on a decline) to quickly buy coins to cover their positions (this is called a short squeeze), potentially pushing the price even higher. The short-term target could reach $0.30, which is a 66% increase from now!
What can give it a push?
Dogecoin ETF approval: If this really goes through, it would essentially give Dogecoin a 'legitimate military license,' allowing large institutions and funds to enter the market openly. Just imagine the scene; it's exciting!
Musk makes big moves: For example, if he truly pushes for his 'American Party' to accept Dogecoin payments, then Dogecoin would no longer be just a 'joke coin.' It could actually be used for purchases, increasing demand and naturally driving the price up.
My view: The Musk effect is particularly evident with Dogecoin; history shows that his words alone can send Dogecoin to the moon. The ETF is even more powerful, but it’s also challenging, belonging to the category of 'super bullish news.' If it truly materializes, it might not even hold at $0.30. However, I must remind everyone that the market often 'trades on expectations.' Prices may rise before a news event is confirmed, but they might drop after it materializes (as the good news is fully priced in), so it's important to be flexible.
What happens if the 'floor' cannot hold? A pullback!
There’s a 'floor' around $0.15 - $0.16; this is the lower edge of the recent month-long fluctuation. If this 'floor' is breached, the price could slide downwards. The first stop might be $0.142, the second stop $0.128, and in extreme cases, it could fall to $0.115. Calculating from the current support level, it could drop by as much as 16%-30%.
Let me add: This 'floor' is an important short-term line of defense. If it holds, there may still be opportunities for further fluctuations and breakouts; if it doesn't hold, confidence can easily collapse, possibly triggering a wave of panic selling. So, for those trading short-term, keep a close eye on this position!
Sensus's short-term trading advice:
Do you think Dogecoin has enough strength to stabilize around $0.1975? Then you might consider a small position.
If it truly performs well and breaks through $0.21, it indicates good momentum. You can hold or slightly increase your position, aiming first for $0.23.
Sensus's personal opinion and case studies:
Dogecoin is driven by emotion and narrative: Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have a lot of technical support, its core lies in community culture and celebrity effects (especially Musk). Case in point: In 2021, when Musk appeared on Saturday Night Live and said, 'Dogecoin is a scam' (even though it was a joke), it immediately knocked the price down from its peak. This shows the power of emotional markets.
The technical aspect is the map, while the news is the accelerator/brake: The support and resistance levels analyzed by Sensus are very important, helping you find key positions. But ultimately, it's the news that makes Dogecoin run, like Musk's tweets or the whispers about the ETF. For instance, every time Musk tweets about Dogecoin-related images or hints, we often see a rapid short-term surge.
Never lose sight of risk awareness: Dogecoin is highly volatile; it’s a game of heartbeats. The potential drop mentioned by Sensus (16-30%) is not meant to scare you; it’s a real possibility. Don't go all-in; use spare cash, set a proper stop-loss (if you lose to a psychological price point you can't bear, admit the loss and exit), and preserve your capital to keep playing.
‘Ceiling’ or ‘floor,’ where will Dogecoin step next? Are you preparing to position for a breakout at $0.20, or waiting to bottom fish at $0.15? Follow Sensus's homepage, and share your strategy in the comments section. Next, we will delve deep into 'the things that must be said about Musk and Dogecoin'!
