#tariffs effect on crypto This tariffs news will affect the July 30th Fed unless mr Trump change it as he always does.

July 12, 2025.

1. Summary of Key Factors

* The Three Major Tariff Implementations: This is the dominant forward-looking risk.

* Canada: A 35% tariff is being implemented.

* Brazil: A 50% tariff is being implemented.

* EU & Mexico: Today's breaking news confirmed the U.S. is implementing a 30% tariff on all imports from both the European Union and Mexico, to begin August 1.

* Unemployment Rate: The last reported unemployment rate was 4.3%. This represents a cooling from its lows but is still a historically strong labor market.

* CPI Inflation Data: The July 15 data release.

* The expected (consensus forecast) headline CPI for the June report is approximately +2.5%

3. The Overall Picture for the Fed Decision

The picture for the July 30 Fed meeting has become dramatically clearer, but also much more severe.

The backward-looking data (4.3% unemployment and an expected moderate CPI reading) would, in isolation, build a solid case for the Fed to consider an interest rate cut to support the softening economy.

However, monetary policy is forward-looking. The confirmation of three massive tariff packages is a paradigm shift. This represents a huge, policy-driven inflationary shock that the Fed cannot ignore. The tariffs are a direct tax on a vast array of goods that will push prices up significantly.

Conclusion: The forward-looking reality of this new, powerful inflationary wave now overwhelmingly outweighs the backward-looking data. For the Fed to cut rates right before this tidal wave of tariff-induced inflation hits the economy would be a catastrophic policy error that would damage their credibility.

Therefore, the overall picture strongly indicates that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady on July 30. They will use their statement to acknowledge the signs of economic weakness but will emphasize that their primary concern must now be to monitor and contain this significant new inflationary threat.