Brothers, the current price of ETH is $2965, with the 4-hour RSI soaring to 89, indicating serious overbuying, and the daily BOLL upper band at 3104 forming strong resistance. The key path for the next 48 hours: if it breaks through 2980 and maintains a volume greater than 150,000 ETH/hour (40% probability), the target is 3050-3100; but it is more likely to retrace to the 2920 support (60% probability), and if it breaks, it will test the 2850 daily middle band. The biggest risk comes from selling pressure from institutions like Sharplink (holding cost $2615, floating profit 13.4%).

Operation Strategy

- Contracts: Go long above 2980 (leverage ≤5 times), take profit at 3050 by 60%; if it falls below 2920, go short and close at 2850. Double-sided stop loss at 1.5%.

- Spot: Gradually reduce positions above 3000 (sell 10% for every 1% rise), buy in three batches below 2850.

- Monitor time: The European market opening (UTC+8 16:00) and the US stock market lunch hour (UTC+8 04:00) are prone to changes, remember to keep an eye on the market when you have time.

Risk Control Key Points:

1. Monitor institutional movements: Track unusual activity in Sharplink wallet addresses.

2. Volume alert line: Pause opening positions when hourly trading volume is <50,000 ETH.

3. Key critical points: Defend 2920 intra-day, decisive stop loss if broken.

The strategy is based on the current overbought structure and will be invalid after 48 hours. Strictly maintain position ≤50%, refuse to hold positions.