Institutions have used real money to turn the ceiling into the floor, but the FOMO sentiment of retail investors is the powder keg for this weekend's market!

Enough talk, let's directly explain the market:

  1. Price is wildly volatile:

    • Just hit a historic high of 118,000 USD, shorts are getting wrecked, 10 billion USD was liquidated in 12 hours, with 93% being short positions!

    • In simple terms: The price has risen so much that even exchanges are starting to count the scraps of short sellers.

  2. Who is buying and buying?

    • The US Bitcoin ETF devoured 1.18 billion USD in just one day (a record!), BlackRock's own ETF has surged to 76 billion USD, and institutions are buying like groceries.

    • In simple terms: Wall Street big shots are filling bags with BTC, not caring about the price at all.

Insight from the strategy:

Policy support:

  • Trump has directly given the crypto industry a 'household registration book'! Establishing a national strategic reserve, filling regulatory positions with insiders, even his own company wants to launch a crypto ETF.

  • Case comparison: Remember when the SEC was suing exchanges every day during Biden's term? Now the policy has made a U-turn, and trading cryptocurrencies suddenly became patriotic?

Technical outlook:

  • After breaking 111,000 USD, the textbook bull market pattern is fully activated:

    • The target for the 'cup and handle' pattern points directly to 134,500 USD (similar to the trajectory after breaking the previous high in early 2024)

    • 'Broadening wedge' short-term target is 123,000 USD (the crazier the rise, the wider the channel)

  • But! The RSI has soared to 80—last March at the same position, Bitcoin retraced 18% within a week; be cautious of spikes this weekend!

Retail investors at their worst moments:

  • Leverage has reached its peak for the year, with a long-short ratio of 1.66 (longs are getting squeezed); someone in our community even mortgaged their house to open a 125x contract yesterday...

  • A bloody lesson: A certain fan sold off at 117,000 USD waiting for a pullback, but woke up to find it soaring to 118,000 USD—missing out in a bull market hurts more than losing money!

Today's strategy:

  • What should the dead bulls do?
    Set a trailing stop to protect profits! If it falls below 116,000 USD reduce your position by half, and firmly hold 111,000 USD (if this level is broken, the bull market script will be rewritten).

  • What should I do to get in?
    Don't chase the high! Wait for a pullback to the 116,000–111,000 USD range and wait for volume to shrink before averaging in, breaking 120,000 USD must have volume to be credible.

  • Core reason: On July 15, the US CPI will be released; if the data shocks, the Fed's rate cut expectations will collapse, and the crypto market will face a bloodbath!


'New money is still pouring in wildly, while old money is starting to shake; the biggest risk in this bull market is not a drop, but that you get off the ride too early!

Bull markets can experience sharp falls; don't let leverage bind your faith, keep enough ammo for black swans!

If you are still losing USDT in the crypto space, as I often say, it's not that you can't do it, but that your method is wrong. I've polished this model for 8 years; I can share it, but only with those who are genuinely looking to turn things around—serious inquiries only.#ETH突破3000 #山寨季何时到来
$BTC