🤔 The Mystery of Bitcoin's Sudden Surge: Is it a Stealth Attack by Major Players or a Policy Signal?

This time, the sudden surge of #BTC[topic]# is indeed hard to pinpoint. When #BTC hit a new high[topic]#, Powell didn’t make any statements, and the Federal Reserve took no action. The underlying logic might be that there were too many short positions at high levels and market sentiment was bearish, allowing the major players to take advantage of the news from the 'Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission' to push the price up. #Binance's 8th Anniversary[topic]#

This situation is somewhat similar to 2019—when General Secretary Xi Jinping mentioned blockchain, Bitcoin surged directly by 40%. However, the market was at the bottom back then, and retail investor participation was high.

But this time the situation is different:

Current prices are at relatively high levels

Retail investors have exited, and institutional control exceeds 70%

Although there has been no official announcement on the policy front, signals such as the loosening of stablecoin policies have been released, which may be a prelude to further developments.

If the 'strength' of this policy signal is close to that of 2019, the market may only last for 7-14 days, followed by a possible 10%-30% correction.

However, since this time it is led by institutions, the pace of the rise may be more 'rational', and the extent of the correction may not be as severe. But if the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is merely 'considering' without any substantial action, the market is likely to return to normal, just like it did in 2019.

📌 Summary:

In the short term, there may still be emotional inertia, but there is a high probability of a 10%-15% correction within 1-2 weeks.

The extent of the correction may be milder; specifics depend on policy developments and external risks.

In terms of operations, do not chase highs; look for the right position and be wary of the 'vacuum period' after policy-driven movements. #趋势交易策略