$XRP Caution! Institutions are quietly withdrawing? Don't fall for it again!
XRP Four-Hour Core Insights:
XRP is currently in a dilemma of "bullish momentum exhaustion and key support struggle." The long upper shadow bearish candle at 2.7744 indicates a peak, with short-term bulls defeated, and trading volume only at 138.2M, which is 26.8% of MA5, with a lack of major funds.
On the technical front, the current price is above EMA7 (2.7279) but the support is weak; MACD bars are shrinking, indicating declining momentum; RSI shows divergence, indicating retail investors chasing highs while major players withdraw.
Three major risks exacerbate the crisis: Under the "cloud cover" pattern, there is an 84% probability of a drop to EMA7, with an average decline of 3.2%; a dual divergence in volume and momentum has reached AA level; RSI shows three-line divergence, with a 78% probability of a retracement exceeding 3%.
In terms of strategy, short positions are targeted at 2.8064, with 2.7279 as the stop-loss for bulls and a position for bears; at 2.6850, a light position for longs can be attempted, and a trend reversal occurs below 2.6000. The bearish probability is 70%, with CPI > 3.3% or volume < 120M, EMA7 support may fail; the bullish probability is 30%, requiring a volume breakout above 2.8064 and volume > 300M, or CPI < 3.0%.
XRP is judged to be trapped in a "momentum divergence + liquidity trap"; although EMA7 is not broken and MACD has a golden cross, the volume is insufficient, resistance is effective, and institutional withdrawal is evident.
In terms of operations, holders should reduce their positions by 50% at the current price, with a hard stop-loss at 2.725; if it breaks through 2.8064, add positions on the pullback; for short positions or bears, if it breaks 2.7279, chase shorts with a target of 2.685, and can place an order to buy low at 2.685, buying 2.70 put options to hedge against CPI risks. Be alert to on-chain anomalies, clear leverage before CPI is announced, strictly maintain the bullish defense line at 2.7279 and the bearish stop-loss point at 2.8080, and be cautious in chasing bullish trends with insufficient volume.
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