Reviewing the market over the past four months, it can be simply divided into four stages:
1. Rising all the way, soaring to the sky
2. High-level fluctuations, slight pullbacks
3. Bottoming out and rebounding, the trend is unclear
4. Continue to rise after breaking the trend line
Among them, I generally judge the first three stages to be relatively accurate; the only mistake was in the third stage—whether the market was a rebound or a real reversal; I misjudged it at that time.
Why was there a mistake? It’s not that there was no basis, but that the 'main funds' also made a wrong judgment. Don’t be fooled by their usual grandeur; when macro variables explode, they also have to move with the wind.
Why do I see the third stage as a rebound? Because in the second stage, the main funds had basically exited at high levels. They initially intended to take a deep squat to wash the market, so I judged this to be a short-term rebound, and the market had not turned around.
But who knew that suddenly the U.S. launched a 'big and beautiful' plan, releasing a lot of favorable policies, restoring market confidence, and money flowed back in. Even the originally bearish main funds re-entered the market, after some fluctuations, they caught the news of interest rate cuts, plus the fact that there were too many shorts in the market, the main funds simply chose to drive up the price, and the market turned upward.
Many people think that the main funds can control everything, but that's not the case. In such a rapidly changing environment, even the main funds do not have time to slowly accumulate positions, they can only build positions while pushing the price up, increasing the operational difficulty.
Just talking about yesterday, this coin HYPER was a bit crazy, rising continuously, reminiscent of the past TRB. Nowadays, altcoins in the market either lack volatility or sustainability, and there are not many coins with hot money flooding in and being short-squeezed in the short term. Especially now, with hourly settlement funding fees, many funds cannot hold, rising a few times and then stopping. The fact that HYPER can sustain its rise indicates that there is indeed hot money pushing it behind the scenes.
To put it bluntly, this type of coin is actually similar to the meme coin strategy, but the trading tactics are more aggressive. The Han effect combined with strong controlling hands is simply a targeted harvesting tool for retail investors' wallets.
Currently, the entire crypto market is, to be honest, at a 'hell-level' of difficulty.
There are new coins emerging every day, whether they are altcoins, mainstream, or meme coins. Relying completely on luck to select coins is obviously not feasible anymore. Especially after institutions and VCs entered, various unlocked projects flooded the market, and retail investors were completely harvested, even the institutions themselves are now stuck and unable to exit.
How to select coins next? Just look at two points: Who can really make money? Who is willing to share profits?
To put it more straightforwardly, look at two core indicators:
• Fees: Are users willing to use it, and can money be collected from users?
• Revenue: How much money can the protocol actually retain, and who does it share it with?
For example, if you look at Uniswap, the daily fees are several million dollars, but its revenue is zero. Why? Because the money earned is all given to market makers and the founding team, and the protocol itself retains nothing, leaving UNI token holders with only voting rights and no real earnings. Therefore, it has remained stagnant at the bottom for a long time.
Let’s take a look at those protocols that really have revenue, for instance, some protocols can have real income daily. Such tokens tend to be more resilient and easier to rise. Because the team has income, they can do three things: buy back, burn, and distribute dividends, providing tangible benefits to token holders.
In summary:
• High fees indicate that the protocol is being used, and it is a profitable business.
• High revenue indicates that the protocol is willing to share profits, making it a reliable project.
• Projects with no revenue, no products, and just boasting, no matter how hot, are bubbles.
So the current coin selection logic is not to look at popularity or listen to stories, but to look at product cash flow and the profit-sharing mechanism of the protocol. Only those products that can survive are the true 'hard protocols' that can withstand bull and bear markets.