Currently, the CMC altcoin season index is 28. After looking at the mainstream altcoins, most of them have completed the upward crossing and changes of the MA indicators on the daily and three-day scales. From the EMA perspective, most coins are now close to EMA7, and the volume on the 4-hour and below has decreased. Next, there will be a decline (correction), but the arrangement of moving averages indicates that it is still a bullish market. The MACD on the daily, three-day, and weekly charts is still in the process of expanding above the zero axis. Normally, the probability is over 70-80%, and the upward trend will continue. We are currently just rubbing against the resistance zone.

In the short term, mainstream altcoins are expected to drop back to the recently broken resistance level. Based on this correction amplitude, it is unlikely that the leveraged positions of more than 5 times set at the peak will hold (referring to those who bought at the peak). Most coins that have achieved a breakthrough at the three-day resistance price should be observed for their situation after falling back to support. A continuous slow rise instead of a sharp increase is the real rise; the last big and fast increase belongs to the tail end of the upward trend.

Now, I believe that in terms of the overall market for altcoins, we are in the early stage of a trend reversal to long-term growth. The early stage must be a slow rise, and this process should be calculated on a weekly basis. We are currently in the early stage of market initiation, having just experienced a significant drop and now returning to the previous resistance zone, with some achieving breakthroughs. This position will inevitably linger for a while. In the short term, those who opened long positions at the peak of altcoins yesterday may not be able to hold on, and there is a high possibility of liquidation for those stuck there.

Of course, if the market does not rise within a few days and continues to decline near the support zone, it would be wise to exit as it could turn into a trap. Therefore, closely monitor the situation over the next 3-5 days; if it hasn’t gone up and instead comes down, then it would basically require a change in perspective. #山寨季何时到来