The minutes of the Federal Reserve (Fed), released yesterday (09), show that the majority of policymakers expect interest rate cuts to occur as early as July. Expectations are set for the meeting at the end of the month, scheduled for the 30th. However, the central bank still maintained the reference rate between 4.25% and 4.50%.
At the meeting, committee members agreed that inflation has receded, although it is still 'somewhat elevated'. Additionally, they noted that uncertainty in projections has decreased but has not been eliminated. For most, a cut in interest rates would be 'probably appropriate' this year, should economic data confirm the trend of moderating inflation.
Amid the debate over the future of interest rates in the United States, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new record, hitting $112,000 in the last 24 hours. Indeed, this movement above $112,000 places Bitcoin in price discovery territory. The breakout eliminates a key resistance level held since its last historical high in May 2025.
How did the crypto market react?
Despite the partial consensus, there were divergences. Some Fed members opposed monetary easing in 2025, arguing that inflation remains stubborn and the labor market remains strong. They highlighted that short-term inflation expectations remain high among businesses and consumers.
The Fed's more dovish stance contributed to maintaining investor optimism in crypto assets. Following the growth of BTC, Ethereum (ETH) recorded a 10% increase, reinforcing the connection between cryptocurrencies.
Historically, lower interest rates tend to favor risk assets by increasing liquidity and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding tokens. However, markets are still awaiting relevant economic indicators, especially the consumer price index (CPI) for June, expected tomorrow (11).
It's official:
President Trump is now calling for the first 300+ basis point interest rate cut in US history.
This would be 3 TIMES larger than the 100 bps cut on March 15th, 2020, the largest in history.
So, what happens if the Fed does this? Let us explain.
(a thread) pic.twitter.com/k3Bo0ri1zY
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 9, 2025
Controversies involving Trump touch on the Fed
In addition to concerns about inflation, the minutes mentioned recent tariff increases as a risk factor. Although most officials assess that the effects will be limited or temporary, several expressed concern about possible indirect impacts on prices and projections.
Indeed, Brazil has become the latest target of Trump's tariff policies. Last night, President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, which alarmed the market and impacted the Bovespa Index. At this moment, B3 recorded a decline ranging from 700 to 800 negative points or -0.60%. At the same time, the dollar opened higher, nearing R$5.60, but regressed to R$5.56 at the time of publication of the report.
In an interview with BeInCrypto, the business director of Mercado Bitcoin, Thiago Fagundes, stated that there is no relation between the historical high and the tariff issue.
The tariff imposed by the US government tends to decrease the supply of dollars in Brazil, which puts pressure on the exchange rate and devalues the real. In this scenario, the price of crypto assets tends to rise in the real quotation, even if the price in dollars remains stable, explains Fagundes.
For now, the central bank signals openness to a more flexible monetary policy, although the start of the transition depends on confirmations in upcoming data. The meeting on July 30 will be closely watched by investors.
The article 'Fed Interest Rate Cuts Generate Speculations in the Crypto Market' was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
