Based on current Bitcoin market data and a multidimensional analysis of macroeconomic, regulatory, and technological factors, Bitcoin's future trend shows a pattern of short-term consolidation followed by upward breakout and long-term continuous ascent. The specific logic is as follows:

I. Short-term trend: Consolidation and power accumulation, breakout imminent

  1. Price range and resistance support
    As of July 10, 2025, Bitcoin's price isbetween $108,000 and $112,000with key resistance at$109,600(near historical highs), support at$107,200. If the resistance level is broken, it may trigger a short squeeze, pushing the price towards$110,800-$111,500; if it falls below the support level, it may pull back to$105,700-$104,200.

  2. Technical indicator signals

    • MACD: The histogram turns from negative to positive, short-term momentum strengthens, forming a golden cross, indicating accumulation of bullish strength.

    • RSI: Current value is 53.8, in a neutral range, although not overbought, upward momentum weakens, caution is needed for short-term pullback risks.

    • Bollinger Bands: The 4-hour chart shows Bollinger Bands contracting, indicating decreased volatility, suggesting a new round of volatility expansion is imminent. If the upper band (around $109,250) is broken, bullish momentum may be reignited.

  3. Market sentiment and capital flow

    • Derivatives data: Open interest slightly decreased, but options trading volume increased by 11.72%, with a positive funding rate (+0.0043%), indicating moderate and non-crowded bullish sentiment.

    • Spot net flow: On July 8, funds flowed out by $148.65 million, showing some profit-taking, but the overall market structure remains controlled by buyers.

II. Medium-term driving factors: Supply-demand imbalance and institutional dominance

  1. Supply-demand imbalance intensifies

    • Institutional demand far exceeds supply: The number of BTC purchased by listed companies and ETFs continues to surpass the daily output of miners. For example, MicroStrategy holds over 597,000 BTC, and BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust has a management scale of $75 billion, controlling over half of the Bitcoin ETF market.

    • Strong inflow of ETF funds: In June 2025 alone, Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $4 billion in inflows, with BlackRock funds seeing a 22% surge in trading volume in the last week of June, adding a net investment of $1.31 billion.

  2. Regulatory environment continues to improve

    • U.S. policy support: Bitcoin is officially recognized as a reserve asset, the U.S. launches a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' and approves multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs.

    • Global policy shift: India considers piloting a Bitcoin reserve program, and the regulatory stance of many countries is gradually becoming clearer, providing institutional entry guarantees.

  3. Favorable macroeconomic conditions

    • Rising inflation expectations: The U.S. government's $3.8 trillion spending plan exacerbates inflation concerns, driving funds towards hard assets like Bitcoin.

    • Monetary policy easing: Central banks worldwide are shifting to an easing cycle, with dozens of rate cuts over the past year, providing liquidity support for Bitcoin's growth.

III. Long-term trend: Technological innovation and market expansion

  1. Technological advancements enhance practicality

    • Expansion of the Lightning Network: Public channels holding over 5,000 BTC, quadrupling since 2020, reducing transaction fees and enhancing payment efficiency.

    • Rising real-world adoption: Major fast-food chains globally adopt Lightning payments, Tether integrates USDT on the Lightning Network, enhancing Bitcoin's payment capabilities and everyday usability.

  2. Market dominance consolidation

    • Trend of capital concentration: Bitcoin's market dominance reaches 65%, the highest level in years. Investors view it as the most reliable and liquid crypto asset, especially during macroeconomic uncertainties.

    • Diverging performance of altcoins: Major competitors like Ethereum and Solana have seen significant declines this year, with capital primarily flowing into BTC rather than riskier alternatives.

  3. Valuation models support long-term growth

    • MVRV Z-Score indicator: Current value around 2-3, in a neutral zone, far from the overheated values during market peaks (around 7-9), indicating Bitcoin is not overvalued.

    • Energy Value Oscillator indicator: Bitcoin's trading price is 10%-20% lower than the fair value calculated by models. If energy value rises to $150,000 and prices show a 50%-100% premium, the long-term price range could be between $225,000 to $300,000.

IV. Risk warnings and strategy recommendations

  1. Short-term pullback risk: If Bitcoin fails to break through the resistance level of $109,600, it may pull back to the $90,000 to $100,000 range. Investors need to closely monitor the defense of the key support level ($107,200).

  2. Long-term holding strategy: Based on institutional demand, regulatory support, and technological advancements, Bitcoin's long-term upward trend is clear. Investors may consider gradually building positions during pullbacks and holding until the end of 2025 or longer.

  3. Risk hedging tools: Use options, futures, and other derivatives to hedge short-term volatility risks, especially for high-leverage traders.

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