In the first quarter of 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced a decline, leading many crypto enthusiasts to lose confidence in the cryptocurrency industry. Macroeconomic policies distribute capital over the long term, while liquidity in the crypto market flows between casino-like trading, yield farming, and emerging value-driven investments, despite market volatility.

What will the cryptocurrency market look like in 2025? Will cryptocurrencies rise or fall in the future? In the first quarter of 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced a decline, leading many crypto enthusiasts to lose confidence in the cryptocurrency industry. Macroeconomic policies distribute capital over the long term, while liquidity in the crypto market flows between casino-like trading, yield farming, and emerging value-driven investments, despite market volatility. So, what is the cryptocurrency trend in 2025? Is it still worth investing?

Tired of the decline, what should be focused on?

Policy: Influenced by short-term impulses, but still bullish in the long term.

Market: Rotating between casino, yield, and value.

Blockchain: When high TPS becomes a standardized commodity.

Project: Focusing solely on new and interesting tracks.

1) Internet framework innovation.

2) Connecting Web2 and Web3.

3) Making BTC truly work.

4) Serving incoming TradFi.

5) Acting like a non-crypto project.

Policy: Influenced by short-term impulses, but still bullish in the long term.

What is the impact of BTC national reserves?

Trump's proposed BTC reserve plan lacks congressional approval and risks being overturned by the next administration. Since the U.S. government already holds BTC, they are more likely to call on BTC from the balance sheet rather than buying directly from the market, so the direct impact on the market may be limited. However, this move could profoundly affect corporate and international strategies.

Crypto reserves may dilute BTC value:

· If BTC is included in crypto reserves and mixed with other crypto assets, it may weaken its position. If this reserve is shaped to back the dollar (hopefully not), it would raise concerns about dollar stability and push up interest rates. For now, Trump's policy appears to be driven by self-interest considerations. A broader ETF market and more categories:

StETH ETF is in development, and if approved, it will drive ETH staking growth. The possibility of launching $SOL ETF this year is also high, and many Solana versions of 'MicroStrategy' are emerging, further driving staking demand. Market attention is rising regarding Chinese investors' access to $BTC ETFs (still with significant uncertainty), but custodians are ready.

Regardless of short-term volatility, macroeconomic policies will drive the inflow of funds and talent in the long run.

Market: Rotating between casino, yield, and value.

Currently, there are mainly two types of traders in the market:

· Casino gamblers -- chasing 1000x leverage in PvP games.

Yield farmers -- seeking stable, low-risk returns.

The trading volume contributed by traders between the two is small, but this may change in the future.

Type 1 Gamblers: "Protect our fair casino!"

The Solana meme track once had PMF, but events like the exits of Trump, Melania, and Libra series, as well as insider trading, not only damaged market liquidity but also harmed the fairness of the casino. Now, DEXs are trying to rebuild trust through sniper sorting, Dutch auctions, and mandatory community airdrops, hoping to restore trading volume once the macro environment improves.

Type 2 Mega Whales: "Winning our trust with safety and time."

Low-risk yield farmers are unlikely to take zero-risk for an extra 10% APY. Ethereum still leads in TVL and security, while other chains are struggling to catch up. Yield sources include DEX emissions, lending interest, hedging, government bonds, etc., each with different risk levels. The highest quality projects are seeking a delicate balance between yield and risk and striving to persuade LPs to participate.

Type 3 Value Investors: "Emerging under a clearer regulatory framework."

Whether compliant on-chain assets (such as Web2 companies going on-chain and RWA) can thrive depends on the clarification of regulations. Once clear rules are established, value investing will take shape, and income buybacks will no longer be insignificant. Compared to market cap, tokens will have actual utility, attracting value investors.

Blockchain: When high TPS becomes a standardized commodity.

Solana

@solana's biggest moat is its perfect PMF, which is now expanding into political and broader advantageous fields. Price determines market recognition -- SIMD-0228 aims to support SOL prices in the long term by linking staking yields to emissions. Imagine: SOL ETF → More staking → Lower emissions → Stronger price stability.

DEX on Solana is solving liquidity loss and trust issues, while the perpetual contract track is enhancing performance through rollups/temporary rollups (such as @ZetaMarkets, @magicblock), while @ranger finance is responsible for aggregating perpetual trades. Banks, payments, and stablecoins are rapidly expanding.

@meow provides income-generating U.S. business checking accounts.

@sphere labs provides lower-cost fiat withdrawal solutions than Coinbase.

@Perena is building top-tier stablecoin infrastructure.

Challenge:

Protecting a fair casino.

2) Strengthening DeFi liquidity and robustness.

3) Ensuring network stability and security to promote institutional adoption.

Hyperliquid

@HyperiquidX's biggest moat is its killer application.

The diagnostic incentive reward mechanism has been implemented, and network income sources now include platform and auction fees, as well as EVM Gas fees. Although this mechanism has yet to be directly reflected in token prices, it unlocks new $HYPE value capture methods (Gas, lending, staking, and yield mechanisms). High market cap native assets (like spot BTC) have finally entered the ecosystem.

Challenge:

1) Maintaining an open ecosystem in the context of competition from local DEXs and perpetual contracts with other ecosystems is not easy.

2) Security risks -- Bybit's multi-signature had only 4 signers and encountered a rug, while HyperLiquid currently has only 2.

Monad

@monad xyz's moat is Hyper-EVM + open ecosystem.

The Monad testnet has achieved steady growth, with TPS reaching 120 and no significant bottlenecks. Although the ecosystem is still in its early stages, its openness is crucial for building a more organic environment, avoiding the 'kingdom shaping' effect seen in other ecosystems. Community-driven projects like Molandak NFT have naturally emerged, promoting ecosystem growth.

Future outlook: The killer application potential in tracks like DeFi, consumer-grade applications, A1, and payments is enormous.

Project: Only focusing on novel and interesting tracks.

Internet framework innovation.

1. Scalability often comes at the cost of decentralization and security, while @doublezero is developing a blockchain-agnostic foundational layer connection framework. It improves blockchain performance by filtering before transactions reach validators and optimizing outbound message routing. A bridge between Web2 and Web3.

2. PoW companies have successfully gone public, but POS companies have yet to achieve this. The blockchain needs reputable, well-documented validators. The Validator-as-a-Service model may become a bridge between regulated public entities and blockchains.

3. On-chain BTC is currently mostly idle, earning only minimal returns in lending or relying on altcoin inflation rewards. @yieldbasis provides real BTC yield channels with minimum impermanent loss (IL) through the AMM mechanism.

Serving TradFi entry.

4. Stablecoins remain the most profitable business in the crypto space, but Web2 companies face challenges regarding regulation, deposit and withdrawal, and security. @BastionPlatform has received NYDFS approval and is positioning itself as a stablecoin issuer for Web2 giants, disguised as a non-crypto project.

5. The biggest advantage in the crypto space is liquidity. @megapot i0 is building the world's largest online Jackpot platform, and its API can serve as a user retention tool for Web2 companies while providing linear growth returns for stablecoin LPs.

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Continuously monitoring:$ETH $BTC