Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
The summer life continues, and yesterday, under the scorching heat, I was taken out by a little friend for a walk. It actually feels more tiring to hang out than to write articles, so I slept quite soundly last night and didn't even know it rained heavily in Beijing at night. I only saw through videos sent by others in the morning that many roads were flooded. However, compared to the extreme weather, the market performance in the past few days seems to be overall okay, as Bitcoin once again reached a historic new high of $112,040, and discussions in the group have become livelier than a few days ago, as shown in the chart below.
Meanwhile, some altcoins are also performing well, with many coins seeing single-day gains exceeding 10%, as shown in the chart below.
Since the beginning of the year, many people online have been calling for a bear market for what seems like a long time, but Bitcoin continues to disappoint these people by reaching new highs time and again.
In the previous article, we mentioned a speculation: over the past year, Bitcoin seems to be entering a structural process of capital redistribution, with early whales starting to exit while some medium-sized players such as institutions/funds begin to take over and gradually build positions. In the short term, the selling by whales may exert pressure on the market prices, but as long as medium-sized players can continuously accumulate, the market is still worth looking forward to in the medium to long term. However, in this game of wealth migration, it is likely that retail investors will ultimately bear the brunt.
Here is a Bitcoin price prediction chart (prediction for July 10, 2025). Based on the trend in the prediction chart, we might see Bitcoin reach $150,000 this year, followed by a relatively deep market correction. In 2029, Bitcoin's price may reach $260,000, as shown in the chart below.
Of course, the above prediction chart is merely based on the price trends of the past 1,458 days to speculate on the possible price trends of the next 1,458 days, and the results may not be accurate. In previous articles, we also mentioned that market prices are determined by various dimensions including macro factors, policies, supply and demand, and emotions. The accuracy of such predictions mainly depends on whether Bitcoin's subsequent behavior can perfectly replicate historical cycles.
However, the market is always changing, but human nature is often hard to change. Although we may face many unknown situations in the future, if you still believe Bitcoin has a future, then it's still true to the statement we mentioned in earlier articles: if your goal is the next 10 or 20 years, then Bitcoin today is not expensive no matter when you buy it.
Everyone has a different understanding of cycles. Some view 1-2 months as a cycle, while others consider 4-5 years as a cycle. Some even view 10-20 years as a cycle. Regarding making money, some focus on the current price's highs and lows, while others focus on the cycle's patterns.
If we simply recall according to the existing crypto cycle patterns:
The bull market of 2017 was mainly fueled by the hype of ICOs. At that time, retail investors could achieve significant returns with small investments. Of course, these returns were proportional to the risks. It felt like there were 'thousands' of projects fundraising through ICOs, where some became instant millionaires, while others went to zero (at that time, many scams and bubble projects also utilized ICOs for fundraising). For example, the ICO price of BNB was $0.11, and the ICO price of EOS was $1. A simple check of historical data shows that there were about 2,300 ICO projects in 2017, and to date, only about 5% have survived, while the remaining 95% either disappeared or became worthless projects or zombie coins.
The bull market of 2021 was mainly due to the influx of a large amount of capital (the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, massive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and quantitative easing). This was also a bull market where institutions began to enter (represented mainly by Musk and Tesla), and it was the bull market with the most crypto innovations. We not only experienced the L1 blockchain battle, but also witnessed the golden moments of various innovative narratives such as DeFi, NFTs, GameFi, and the metaverse. Many projects' prices were pushed to historical highs, especially in the craziest phase of the bull market. It is not an exaggeration to say that it felt like you could make money just by buying in OK or BN with your eyes closed. This bull market was probably when many people started to run into the market and officially came into contact with cryptocurrencies.
The bull market in 2025 will mainly benefit from institutional driving, as major institutions have finally entered and begun to gain a certain level of influence. With the successful process of ETF compliance, the influx of macro funds (traditional funds), and the hype around auxiliary narratives such as AI and RWA, Bitcoin successfully broke through the historic threshold of $100,000, marking a milestone. Additionally, with the U.S. announcing its Bitcoin strategic reserve plan and the continuous advancement of various bills/policies targeting cryptocurrencies, it can be said that this bull market seems to have become a crucial stage for cryptocurrencies to move from being a fringe asset to officially integrating into the mainstream.
In fact, if we recall the past bull markets, we can easily find that as large participants (represented by countries and institutions) increasingly enter, this market seems to be becoming less friendly to retail investors (in simple terms, it is becoming increasingly difficult for ordinary retail investors to make money). However, from another perspective, this seems to be a sign that a new market is beginning to mature.
Especially since entering 2025, major institutional investors continue to accelerate their accumulation of Bitcoin, while the U.S. is implementing or planning to implement regulations/bills that seem to be accelerating the globalization of cryptocurrencies. Bills like the (The GENIUS Act) and (The CLARITY Act) that we mentioned in previous articles might very well become a direct catalyst for liquidity in a market worth trillions of dollars in the long run.
This is the worst of times, and it is also the best of times. As for the overall cryptocurrency market at the moment, the infrastructure has become relatively sound after years of development, and the regulatory framework (mainly in the U.S.) targeting the crypto market is becoming increasingly clear. Previously, cryptocurrencies were niche and for retail investors; now, they belong to institutions, and in the future, they will be global in nature. As ordinary retail investors, we need to have the courage to burn our boats. The failures and successes of the past decade have only shown us a window. In the future, we may also see a door leading us out, and perhaps we will continue to see a different and expansive world.
Lu Xun said: There was originally no road on the ground, but when many people walk on it, it becomes a road. In fact, the development patterns of any market are basically like this. The path of cryptocurrencies is gradually walked out by early believers. Initially, cryptocurrencies were considered 'geek toys' and 'Ponzi schemes.' Although the ICO boom in 2017 transitioned cryptocurrencies from bubble to paradigm, many still viewed them as 'valueless' and 'air scams.' However, over time, mainstream finance has slowly begun to accept cryptocurrencies.
In short, if you believe it, hold it, and add an extra life bet to your future. If you don't believe it, stay away from it and continue doing what you currently think is right.
Many people looking at Bitcoin at $110,000 will reminisce about Bitcoin at $1 (in January 2011, Bitcoin's trading price first broke $1). They hope to find the next similar wealth-generating asset, but no one can predict what the next asset will be. What we can do is to seize current opportunities (if you also believe Bitcoin's price will reach $1 million within 10 years) while also broadening our perspectives and preparing ourselves to remain open-minded.
Regarding trading, for some, it is an investment, while for others, it is merely speculation. Ultimately, we only need to focus on two things: how much we can earn at the right time and how much we can lose at the wrong time. For instance, since the current bull market began, many people have watched Bitcoin rise from below $20,000 to the current $110,000, lamenting why they didn’t buy Bitcoin back then or why they have so little Bitcoin now... At the same time, they sigh about why they kept adding positions in certain altcoins after suffering losses, or why they followed others' words and FOMOed into a worthless coin, leading to total loss.
If we summarize this situation, it can roughly be divided into two aspects: on one hand, it is challenging to form a scaled or continuous investment in 'certain' trading opportunities. For instance, they may believe Bitcoin will rise, but at that time, it was already $20,000, and the potential for greater returns was limited. On the other hand, when facing 'uncertain' trading opportunities, they may bet heavily, believing their theories must be correct, and their understanding or skills will definitely overcome the market and bring huge returns.
As for myself, I mainly consider doing those 'certain' trades because while 'uncertain' opportunities may have huge potential returns, the risks are also significant. Moreover, such trades are hard to master completely through fixed techniques or skills (at most, they can only increase the probabilities). However, certain trades can be continuously improved and optimized through certain methods.
Investing seems like a very simple thing; it's just about buying low and selling high. However, making the right investment (i.e., the two things we mentioned above) is actually very difficult. It requires finding various balance points between one's investment theory and market changes.
Therefore, my investment experience over the years has taught me one crucial thing: to manage my positions (risk management) very strictly, especially to never be too attached to losing trades. No matter what your operating strategy or theory is, remember, the market is always right.
As long as the market exists, we will not lack trading opportunities. What we need to do is to persist and not be eliminated by the market. If your position management is not good or disciplined enough, leading to significant losses (or being stuck) in your investment portfolio, then you won't have enough capital to seize new or even better opportunities.
Therefore, clearly understanding one's risk tolerance is a very important part of investing. We need to deeply understand: how much we can earn at the right time and how much we can lose at the wrong time. Over the years, I have seen too many examples and have encountered many people whose capital size and technical skills were much better than mine, yet many have left this field due to losses, while I still persist. Looking back over the years, especially in the first few years after entering this field, I also made many trades and experienced many losses. However, from actual results, most profits were actually gained from a few specific trades (BTC, ETH). This is why I have always insisted on that saying: stay focused, keep thinking, and maintain patience.
I hope to continue to encourage everyone~
